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Last #DDDD research for a while.
Based on research from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6609997/#:~:text=Failures%20in%20phase%20II%20testing,(15%25)%20(10) and https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6092479/#:~:text=respect%20to%20safety.-,Hwang%20et%20al.,post%2Dmarket%20%5B24%5D, 50% of P2 and 17% of P3 trials fail due to safety concerns.
Averaging across P1, 2 and 3 trials (with the same figure used for P1 and 2 due to lack of P1 data).. https://twitter.com/BlogShrey/status/1339181581177655297
Based on research from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6609997/#:~:text=Failures%20in%20phase%20II%20testing,(15%25)%20(10) and https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6092479/#:~:text=respect%20to%20safety.-,Hwang%20et%20al.,post%2Dmarket%20%5B24%5D, 50% of P2 and 17% of P3 trials fail due to safety concerns.
Averaging across P1, 2 and 3 trials (with the same figure used for P1 and 2 due to lack of P1 data).. https://twitter.com/BlogShrey/status/1339181581177655297
..we can estimate 39% of trials as failing due to safety concerns.
With #DDDD however, due to the bacteria naturally occurring in the human gut, the safety profile is much better.
We can hence adjust this 39% down to 5% for @4dpharmaplc (other opinions welcome).
With #DDDD however, due to the bacteria naturally occurring in the human gut, the safety profile is much better.
We can hence adjust this 39% down to 5% for @4dpharmaplc (other opinions welcome).
This means that for #DDDD, the chances of a treatment succeeding at any stage can be estimated at 13.8% * (1+(0.39-0.05)) = 18.5% approximately.
The chance of at least one success from 10 assumed treatments, from P1 through to regulatory approval becomes 1-((1-0.185)^10) = 87%.
The chance of at least one success from 10 assumed treatments, from P1 through to regulatory approval becomes 1-((1-0.185)^10) = 87%.
This means that, as @Jonno_Dales was saying, when you take into account the positive data from the Merck collaboration and the positive Blautix P2 trial, the chance of any one treatment succeeding and a #DDDD rerate into the £bns become closer to 95%+ than 90%.
Very bullish.
Very bullish.
