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I believe this is the final tweak that I will be making to the #Bulletprospectprocess for WR's and can settle on this for the long term.
Lets take a spin through the classes for WR's drafted from rounds 1-3 starting in 2010.
Lets dive in.
Lets take a spin through the classes for WR's drafted from rounds 1-3 starting in 2010.
Lets dive in.
Possible Grades are:
Transcendent > Generational > Bulletproof > Coinflip > Maybe > Bust.
Inputs - Draft Capital, MS of Receiving Yards, Yards/Team Pass Attempt, draft age, early declare, BOA, and in rare instances athleticism. These grades apply zero context.
Here is 2010.
Transcendent > Generational > Bulletproof > Coinflip > Maybe > Bust.
Inputs - Draft Capital, MS of Receiving Yards, Yards/Team Pass Attempt, draft age, early declare, BOA, and in rare instances athleticism. These grades apply zero context.
Here is 2010.
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
I mentioned earlier that these grades include zero context. I actually thought that Jalen Reagor was a better prospect than the 'model' claimed because he had one of the worst catchable pass rates I can recall seeing his final year of college.
I manually adjusted him to BPP.
I manually adjusted him to BPP.
Laviska Shenault had a strange circumstance that prevented him from hitting the BPP tier as well. So I manually adjusted him to BPP
When Laviska missed games, one of the other WRs dominated to an absurd level compared to the rest of that WR's season. I felt it skewed the stats
When Laviska missed games, one of the other WRs dominated to an absurd level compared to the rest of that WR's season. I felt it skewed the stats
I also let Jerry Jeudy's subpar production slide based on him playing in one of the most draft capital heavy WR rooms in CFB history.
I gave him the bump and not Ruggs because Jeudy ACTUALLY produced.... Ruggs did not. That was a big distinction for me.
I gave him the bump and not Ruggs because Jeudy ACTUALLY produced.... Ruggs did not. That was a big distinction for me.
From 2003 - 2017 the current hit rates at each grade are:
BPP+ - 25/31 = 81%
Coinflip - 28/63 = 44%
Maybe - 8/34 = 24%
Bust - 5/59 = 8%
BPP+ - 25/31 = 81%
Coinflip - 28/63 = 44%
Maybe - 8/34 = 24%
Bust - 5/59 = 8%
This was a thread testing the process if you are curious. The last tweak wasnt covered in it, but I think it should give you an idea how we got here. haha https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1307190353234067458?s=20
If you have any questions, let me know!
