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Kerala’s voting pattern is now sharply divided among demographic lines. The five Hindu majority districts of south and central Kerala- Palakkad, Thrissur, Alappuzha, Kollam and Trivandrum have become a solid Red Wall for the Left due to the total loss of INC appeal to Hindus.
Majority of the Hindu INC vote here has shifted lock, stock and barrel to the BJP. However, generic BJP candidates haven’t been able to make much headway into the Left vote in these areas. This gives the Left a huge advantage in these in a median election.
2019 Lok Sabha was of course not a median election due to a variety of reasons. One was of course the Sabarimala issue. The second was that the BJP vote Increasing above 13-15% is heavily candidate dependent and they fielded strong candidates in a number of these seats in 2019.
OTOH, BJP and it’s ally the BDJS also fielded a number of very weak candidates in these seats in 2019. This resulted in the now BJP ex INC voter going back to the UDF. Add the above to the fact even these districts have at least 30% minority population.
Minorities consolidate massively behind the INC in LS polls as it is the national alternative to the BJP. This coupled with the Sabarimala issue which helped the INC also a bit everywhere resulted in the 2019 sweep for the UDF even in these districts.
Having said that, the only seat the Left won in 2019 was Alappuzha which had a median BJP candidate who polled around 17% votes. Just enough to help the Left overcome minority consolidation as well as a small boost in INC support due to Sabarimala.
These factors don’t matter much in assembly polls and even more so in local polls. As the INC is nowhere close to solving this problem, the UDF is even more dependent on the remaining districts- the Christian belt of Central Kerala and Malabar with its huge Muslim population.
Unfortunately for the INC, the 2019 results infused the party with so much confidence that it decided to take advantage of K M Mani’s death to move to fulfill its long held dream of destroying the Kerala Congress by isolating Jose K Mani and propping up a washed out P J Joseph.
The calculation was that Jose Mani’s perceived arrogance would mean the rank and file would play along and indeed more senior leaders than one would’ve expected did support Joseph. But Jose Mani took the risk of defecting to the LDF in spite of the anti Left ethos of his party.
The risk paid off massively with the LDF winning the district panchayats in Pathanamthitta, Idukki and the Kerala Congress jewel of Kottayam. The INC has 4 months to figure out a way to ensure these results were a one off as there is no real UDF path to power without a sweep here
Malabar OTOH presents a completely difficult picture. The INC took this region seriously in 2019 and fielded strong candidates everywhere including of course Rahul Gandhi. 2019 saw a strong anti Left coalition sweep seats all across Malabar from Kasargode to Malappuram.
The BJP vote share interestingly did not increase here at all in 2019 and that pattern seems to have contributed in the local body polls (with the notable exception of the Kozhikode Corporation). BJP inclined voters here still seem inclined to tactically vote INC to stop the Left
The violence drenched politics of North Malabar is probably a reason for this along with the ability of leaders like Muralidharan and Sudhakaran to craft cross community coalitions getting support from BJP voters as well Islamist organisations like the Welfare Party of India.
This coupled with the massive strength of the Muslim League throughout Malabar has helped the UDF significantly improve its position across the region and they should be able to gain assembly seats here. This was of course the original model of the UDF created by K Karunakaran.
That model was frayed by Sonia sidelining Karunakaran and it is probably fitting that it is his son who is holding up some semblance of it somewhere. The UDF has a long way ahead before May 2021 though it will definitely make some gains and IMO it will still be a close election.
