AZ COV2 Positivity Update: 12/16/20

AZDHS updated the dashboard by adding a "Tests Conducted" tab to the Testing section.

We now know 1.85M Diagnostic tests have not been reported, and the Pos% calc excludes 1.7M negatives.

My new chart shows each Pos%.

/1
The blue & green Pos% curves on my chart are both visible on the AZDHS dashboard now (see pics 1&2).

Green: ONLY Positives / Tests for people who never tested before

Green: All Positives / All Tests

Red: Unique Positives (people) / All Negatives. We have to calculate this

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We know to do this now only because of the new "Tests Conducted" tab and the Info button (pic 1).

It makes sense to only count a person as a case once (Unique Positive), but it does not make sense to only count the first negative test. Doing this inflates true Positivity.

/3
It's actually valuable to know all of these %s, but the Actual Positivity (red line) gives us a better view.

It would be more ideal to exclude multiple negatives from the same person/same day. We don't have that data and is likely rare but is > 0.

/END
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