As someone who wants to hold properties 10+ years, I have been thinking quite a lot about this: we are witnessing initial skirmishes of a coming war between centralization and decentralization. https://twitter.com/Keith_Wasserman/status/1338208687114964992

The vaccine rollout, future state bailouts, MMT & cryptos’ elevation to the next plateau of acceptability will be bright billboards. Even before lockdowns, capital & bodies flowed to FLA & TX. Now it is becoming a stampede.

Next year will be an energetic head fake, but there clearly exists a profound (cultural) backlash to the hypocritical, heavy-handed tact taken by leaders like De Blasio. What if reopening does not solve, but compounds this?

Progressive pressures, like AOC-conjured forces chasing AMZN out of town, wield increasing influence. Deregulation of political street violence in parts of the Pacific Northwest is notable.

Less indebted & more culturally cohesive states unified around free enterprise will find themselves with wind at their backs this decade.

In terms of brand, DC has never been weaker. States will fill the void. A major sticking point in DC has been state & local bailouts. Future bailouts will be messy. Bitterness & finger-pointing will intensify. So will interstate competition.

The likely outcome is an exacerbation of existing fault lines. The “Perhaps law-abiding states” line from the TX GOP response to SCOTUS election decision was eyebrow raising. Folks are underestimating the potential balkanization of the U.S. in early 2030s by a significant factor.

States & cities that can zig zag through future entropy will win. Social cohesion translating into political efficiency (& vice-versa) will cause bifurcated – state by state, city by city – markets across the country this decade.

Just my 2 cents!