GEORGIA UPDATE (TOTAL + VBM + IN-PERSON)

Total Votes: 715,048
Percent of registered voters: 9.4%
White: 54.5% (56.5% in general)
Black: 33.1% (27.7% general)
Hispanic: 1.7% (2.6% general)
Asian: 2% (2.6% general)

COUNTY TURNOUT RATES (shown as % of registered voters):

State Average: 9.4%
DeKalb: 11.8%
Cobb: 10.1%
Fulton: 9.3%
Gwinnett: 9.3%
Chatham: 7%
Muscogee: 6.1%
Columbia: 11.6%
Houston: 8.8%
Baldwin: 3.8%
Fayette: 8.5%

IN-PERSON EARLY VOTES

Total Votes: 335,961 (+167,668)
Percent of registered voters: 9.4%
White: 51.9% (58.2% in general)
Black: 35.8% (26.4% general)
Hispanic: 1.9% (2.6% general)
Asian: 1.4% (2.0% general)

COUNTY TURNOUT RATES (shown as % of registered voters):

State Average: 4.4%
DeKalb: 5.1%
Cobb: 2.5%
Fulton: 4.9%
Gwinnett: 3.5%
Chatham: 2.7%
Muscogee: 5.3%
Columbia: 5%
Houston: 4.3%
Baldwin: 3%
Fayette: 5.5%

VBM DATA

Accepted Votes: 379,087 (+64,588)
White: 56.9% (53% general)
Black: 30.7% (30.3% general)
Return Rate: 23.6%

Requested Votes: 1,269,101 (+17,830)
White: 52.4% (51.2% general)
Black: 31.9% (31.4% general)
66+: 48.1% (40.7% general)

COUNTY REQUEST RATES (shown as % of registered voters):

State Average: 16.7%
DeKalb: 23.5%
Cobb: 24.7%
Fulton: 16.6%
Gwinnett: 19.3%
Chatham: 18.3%
Muscogee: 16.6%
Columbia: 14.1%
Houston: 18%
Baldwin: 19.5%
Fayette: 18.2%

Signs to like for Dems include very high suburban turnout and good turnout in Muscogee + Chatham. The VBM/EV ratio in Cobb/Gwinnett/DeKalb suggests favorable splits for them. Cobb + DeKalb, in particular, are taking up a very high share of statewide electorate compared to Nov.

Signs Democrats will want to see improving: the electorate needs to get younger, and I think it will, but it's too early to tell right now. We're currently on track for a slightly older electorate than what we saw in November. They'll want to keep the Black vote rate up.

Signs to like for GOP include high GA-09 turnout and the fact that many of their counties in the North are matching their November shares. Electorate also has a high share of white voters, though it *appears* to be a bit more suburban, which are is more D-friendly than rurals

South-central turnout not looking as hot for the GOP. Worrying sign there, but not as bad as Forsyth and Hall (highly populous, blood-red exurbs) lagging in turnout rates relative to November. I expect this to pick up soon, however.

As @Nate_Cohn has said, the first two days of the runoff EV are NOT easily comparable to the first two days of the general -- in fact, Democrats have a higher net vote lead after the first two days, in all likelihood. The question is what happens from hereon out.

In midterms and runoffs, the Black voter share spikes, as does the suburban share of votes. If that happens again, Democrats are favored. If the rural surge holds up for the GOP and they get strong turnout there again while picking up the exurban pace, then it's R-favored

These turnout rates will not hold. So where does the decline come from? If it comes from majority-black areas and the suburbs, then Rs are favored. If the lag comes from the rurals in south-central Georgia, Ossoff and Warnock win.

I have this as tilt D still, because I do not expect the current turnout rates to hold and I expect suburban votes will take up a higher share again. For that reason, I have Democrats favored. If you think the rural turnout will be at November levels, you'll have it as tilt R.

Tilt D means a tossup with a slight Dem edge.

You're more than welcome to disagree, but if you're going to be a jerk about it to the people who have worked tirelessly to collect, read, and aggregate this data, then you'll just get a block from me.

All data from @ElectProject — I’ve corrected their requests data because it combines VBM requests and in-person