Read on Twitter
1) A Trumpanzee troll tried to prove Covid was no big deal by jumping onto my timeline and claiming. “The death rate for 2020 is the lowest its ever been in the past 4 years according to the CDC.” He then posted the attached figures from the CDC as proof.
2) But his claim had a fatal flaw. He compared the total number of deaths for the year 2020 up to December 9 with the total number of deaths for each of the entire year for 2015-2018.
3) That’s an apples to oranges comparison. We need to make an adjustment to project the total number of deaths in 2020 for an apples to apples comparison.
4) First, if you take the average number of deaths from 2015 - 2018, you get 2,777,397deaths per year. The year with the highest death toll has 2,839,205 deaths.
5) In 2020 there were 2,703,232 in the first 344 days (up to Dec. 9). That is 7,858 deaths/day. There are 22 days between Dec. 9 and Dec. 31. 22 X 7858 = 172,876 deaths we need to add to the total up to Dec. 9
6) 2,703,232 + 172,876 = 2,876,108 deaths if the death rate for the rest of the year is equal to the death rate up to Dec. 9. That is 98,711 more deaths than the average death rate per year form 2015 – 2018.
7) That is also 36,903 more deaths than the number of deaths in 2018—the year with the most number of deaths from 2015 – 2018.
8) In addition, the number of Covid deaths are not distributed evenly through the year. I pasted data from the Covid tracker website into Excel, calculated the number of Covid deaths each day, and graphed the result https://covidtracking.com/data/national
9) Here is the graph of the number of Covid deaths per day derived from the Covid Tracker website.
10) As you can see, the number of deaths/per day has gone up quite a bit recently. During the first 244 days (up to Dec. 9) we averaged 817 deaths/day. From Dec. 10 – 15 we averaged 2,354 deaths/day
11) So the number of excess deaths from covid by the end of 2020 is likely to be higher than what I calculated above
12) And this doesn’t even take into consideration that some people who recover from covid will have lasting damage to their lungs, nervous systems, and other systems. https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/doctors-begin-to-crack-covids-mysterious-long-term-effects/ar-BB1aAS6V
13) More on the long-term effects of Covid https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-19-can-wreck-your-heart-even-if-you-havent-had-any-symptoms/
14) Still more on the long-term effects of Covid /END https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/28/us/coronavirus-long-term-effects.html
