Laying down the marker now:

Purely voluntary vaccinations will continue to consume 100% of available supplies of vaccines AT LEAST UNTIL excess mortality falls to zero.

Which is to say, coercion or inducements might change WHO gets vaccinated but it won't change HOW MANY people get vaccinated. And it's not clear the government is better informed about who should get vaccinated than people themselves...

.... so don't coerce it.

If this prediction is rendered null and untestable by a coercive program being implemented, my alternative hypothesis is:

Regions which adopt coercive or incentivized programs will not obtain appreciably different levels of vaccination by the time excess mortality hits zero.

This prediction is null and void if the Federal government or some other agency or body allocates vaccines preferentially based on the presence of coercive or incentivized programs, as that would clearly be cheating.

Basically, my theory is that every vaccine that gets produced is going to be used as fast as it gets made and that will reduce spread and deaths incrementally, and we will get to no excess mortality before we run out of volunteers.

I say this because the share who report that they would volunteer to get it is >60% and *rising* now, and we can reduce excess mortality to nearly-zero just by vaccinating high-risk people, and also acquired immunity is simultaneously stacking up alongside lots of dead bodies.

Highly at risk people dying, the beginnings of what I expect to be a non-trivial early harvest effect, rising acquired immunity, and rapidly rising vaccination alongside rising vaccination acceptance will push excess mortality to zero before we run out of suitable volunteers.

The idea that we will get to 60% vaccination rates during the lower-spread weather in late spring and early summer with prioritization of essential workers and high-risk people earlier and STILL have excess mortality at a considerable level just seems absurd to me.

Correct! Hardcore anti-vaxxers basically don't matter for stopping COVID. They may matter for eradicating COVID, but even there, maybe not! https://twitter.com/jdh/status/1339262705950052352

If COVID is not very lethal for young people and if vaccination rates stay high for several years and if we can vaccinate most of the world and if natural antibodies last for several years too then eradicating COVID by 2030 is plausible with some effort.