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The suburbs shifted to the Democrats, and they also got more diverse. Is the story that simple? @geoffreyvs, @elena___mejia, @ameliatd and I find that education makes the story more complicated.
https://53eig.ht/3qPfxUW
https://53eig.ht/3qPfxUW
The biggest shift towards Biden was in suburban counties that became *both* more diverse *and* more educated over the past decade -- a lot of the GA suburbs fall into this category.
But for counties where increased diversity and education *didn't* go together, the Democratic swing was bigger in places that became more educated but not more diverse, than in places that became more diverse but not more educated.
Obviously measuring actual causal effects is beyond the scope of this article. But we think it's valuable to try and tease apart two trends that descriptively often go together, and try and see how the blue swing differed.
Of course, another issue with looking at county-level results is the ecological inference problem. And we think that might be part of what's behind the smaller shift in diversifying-but-not-educated areas.
(See https://53eig.ht/2VDzYpt for more on this problem!)
(See https://53eig.ht/2VDzYpt for more on this problem!)
