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Given the data over the last year, and shown in this thread, I will be eternally perplexed if the US doesn't choose to vaccinate the elderly first and foremost, along with those who take care of them directly. Check out the attached prioritization of Wales, which makes sense. https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1336841338923278336
I'd venture that countries that vaccinate the elderly first and foremost (starting with the oldest, working down to maybe ~65) and those who take care of the elderly are going to fare way better than any other method. Yes, the shortage is forcing trade-offs but here we are.
Yes, states will have their own plans, and I guess we will do this badly in many places.
Everyone deserves the vaccine, but not everyone is at equal risk for death and severe disease. Age is such an overwhelming risk factor compared with everything else. https://twitter.com/CarloDallapicc1/status/1339255465549639684
Everyone deserves the vaccine, but not everyone is at equal risk for death and severe disease. Age is such an overwhelming risk factor compared with everything else. https://twitter.com/CarloDallapicc1/status/1339255465549639684
And yes, of course, transmission is a consideration (hence the need to quickly vaccinate those who take care of the elderly, too). Another sad paper will be written in a ~year: excess mortality rates and suffering in places that did not prioritize vaccination according to risk.
Here's a recent paper with realistic data, looking at scenarios through detailed modeling. Their conclusion: "those 60y and older should be prioritized to minimize deaths" & "this recommendation is robust because of the dramatic differences in IFR by age." https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.08.20190629v2.full.pdf
Well I guess it would be in line with the rest of this pandemic if someâmay well be manyâplaces in the United States managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of impending victory even with a vaccine thatâs 95% efficacious.
Everyone deserves protection, but if we do not prioritize vaccination by actual risk, which basically means prioritizing by age and vaccinating the elderly first, it may well be the greatest, most consequential mistake United States does in a year full of very very bad ones. https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/1339417666143080451
