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Update on where we're at in the Brexit negotiations:
While both sides have a way to go, on the level playing field/state aid there is a landing zone in sight. On fisheries, both sides say that is "very difficult"
While both sides have a way to go, on the level playing field/state aid there is a landing zone in sight. On fisheries, both sides say that is "very difficult"
2/ It looks as if all the energy is going into the LPF and once cracked, they'll barrel into the fisheries stuff. Governance, or how to solve disputes, looks like it has been more or less done
3/ However, the question of a review clause (or sunset clause) which is primarily about the fishing arrangements is still in there, and it will still embrace the wider FTA
4/ That's why in recent days @MichelBarnier has been linking "access to waters" with "access to markets". In other words, if we have a fisheries review in 5 yrs time to take stock of quota share + access, the EU can also assess whether the level playing field has remained level
5/ The question is, how do you formulate a legal mechanism linking fisheries and a general review of the FTA. It's not clear that the UK is fully on board with the idea at all...
6/ On fisheries, both sides are stuck at their opening positions: roughly speaking, the EU is offering up to 18pc of the €650m worth of shared stocks caught in UK waters; the UK is seeking 80pc.
7/ If they get LPF over the line then fish will be a classic numbers negotiation. But UK sources warn the EU not to underestimate the strength of feeling about fish (ie, how much more fish you can catch is more tangible to voters than the highly technical LPF stuff)
8/ The EU mood has been soured by a UK paper tabled Dec 6 with a raft of demands on ownership of UK-flagged boats (Dutch + Spanish say this amounts to expropriation), requirements that crews will all have to be British + that fish will need to be landed in the UK for processing
9/ There's even been some suggestion that the fish element might have to wait until the new year, but this is unlikely to fly as the EU wd lose its leverage (ie, the FTA is linked to a fisheries agreement).
10/ In parallel there are simmering tensions in the European Parliament over being asked to ratify a treaty it hasn't had time to scrutinise. Some MEPs believe the EP should downright refuse to ratify by the end of Dec
11/ Philippe Lamberts MEP (Green), who is on the UK coordination group, suggests the EU and UK shd agree a bilateral agreement saying the status quo shd remain for a month or so, so both the EP and HoC get the time required to scrutinise whatever is agreed
12/ The EP Conference of Presidents (ie, the heads of the political groups) will discuss options tomorrow morning. Only the president of the EP can call a plenary, but the Conference of Presidents gets to set the agenda of a plenary
13/ The EP is dead against provisional application (ie, the treaty enters force on Jan 1 but is ratified by the EP later), and the European Commission is also reluctant
14/ However provisional application is the prerogative of member states (the Council). Provisional application is a highly likely outcome because (a) we don't know when a deal will be done (b) each MS has its own procedures (ie, some parls or parl committees need to be consulted)
15/ If a deal gets over the line this weekend (and that's now what people are speculating about) then the EU institutions will probably try to squeeze out as much activity in the coming days in time for a plenary consent vote by the EP on Dec 28
16/ But that all depends on fish (and also the final elements of an LPF deal) and what the Conference of Presidents in the EP is minded to do tomorrow morning
17/ It's understood President von der Leyen is exerting pressure on various parts of the Commission to ensure stuff is done on time or as quickly as humanly possible (legal scrubbing, translating the text etc)
18/ All told, things could reach a denouement this weekend. Stay tuned...
