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While y'all were asleep, Austin's swingiest, suburban single member district elected a mini-Trumper to #atxcouncil over an openly gay progressive incumbent. But before you warm up your take machines, a quick thread: 1/n
Buncha folks on here want to make this a referendum on "defund the police." But grok this:
Nov. 2020 election: 35,550 votes cast = 18670 Travis + 16880 WilCo
Dec. 2020 runoff: 15,073 votes cast = 8688 Travis + 6385 WilCo 2/n
Nov. 2020 election: 35,550 votes cast = 18670 Travis + 16880 WilCo
Dec. 2020 runoff: 15,073 votes cast = 8688 Travis + 6385 WilCo 2/n
That's a drop in turnout of 57%!
(And that's not even considering the massive undervote in the race in Nov. 2020.) 3/n
(And that's not even considering the massive undervote in the race in Nov. 2020.) 3/n
Amid that sharp drop-off, Kelly won by 677 votes.
I'm not sure voters in #atxd6 have any idea what just happened, so I question whether the results can be attributed to the take-writers' favorite narratives. 4/n
I'm not sure voters in #atxd6 have any idea what just happened, so I question whether the results can be attributed to the take-writers' favorite narratives. 4/n
I don't know what changes each campaign made to voter contact (if any) due to COVID. I *do* know that Kelly's supporters physically threatened and harassed Flannigan and his staff. 5/n
But I remain generally curious whether not-canvassing made the difference for Dems who lost in close elections. Phone matches (esp. cell) aren't great. What voters are being missed? 6/n
Anyways, for all of you clamoring for more iDeOlOgiCal DiVeRsiTy on the Austin City council, your new #atxd6 member pals around with Wh*te Suprem*c*sts! There's some diversity for ya. 7/n
(And that's probably great news for the liberal White NIMBYs who uphold structural racism via housing policy, but that's a topic for another day.) 8/n
Separately, I know Travis Co. GOP was sending out a lot of email asking ppl to help Kelly (4 since 12/1). What did WCDP & TCDP do for Jimmy? (TCDP sent at least 3 emails since 11/20.) WilCo's political transformation has been dramatic + was his Dem base. Did they help him? 9/n
FWIW I'm not sure hypothetical Ranked Choice Voting would have helped Jimmy in Nov. given the situation w/ three opponents who largely shared core platform. 10/n
And yes, the argument that his votes inspired multiple opponents who collectively identified people to vote against him is valid. 11/n
So you can be a Bayesian and attribute Flannigan's loss / Kelly's win to whatever your priors are -- but at least consider that a 57% drop in turnout and COVID conditions must have played at least *some* role. /fin
Ok, many good comments (w/ evidence!) in replies. Go read those too!
