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Ok, I know I'm going to stir up some controversy here and probably should live the quite life, but here goes. I think that when we come to write the history of the Covid pandemic, many of the trite assumptions of the first six, eight, ten months may prove to be myths. 1/15
2/15 We heard a lot about Germany and South Korea, for instance. If only we'd followed their example, we'd have done so much better. Today, ICU beds in Seoul are near capacity. Lockdown looms for the first time. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/16/asia/south-korea-japan-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html
3/15 The German response has been hampered by the country's federal political structure - laissez-faire Länder resisting more stringent lockdown measures proposed by Merkel's government. Now, hundreds of deaths a day. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/16/germany-reports-record-covid-deaths-as-country-enters-christmas-lockdown
4/15 The UK was supposed to have done the worst in Europe. But Prof Chris Whitty made the point a while ago that it was too early to tell. If such sad statistics really matter, Italy has actually done worse now. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-13/italy-overtakes-u-k-as-european-country-with-most-covid-deaths
5/15 Belgium and Spain join Italy as having more per- capita deaths from coronavirus than the UK. You'd have no idea of that fact from the political debate in London. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111779/coronavirus-death-rate-europe-by-country/
6/15 I should stress at this point that I am no fan of the Johnson government and share the view that they have made a number of disastrous misjudgements and policy decisions. But I am tired of the mythology which says the UK is uniquely awful.
7/15 Another big myth: track and trace is the way out of the crisis. Increasingly, this looks very unlikely. It was a system designed by pandemic planners for the early stages of an outbreak. Not something that would ever be scaled up to counter 20k daily infections.
8/15 In countries where the killer bug has spiralled, it seems fairly certain now that the way out is a continuation of lockdowns (of varying severity), distancing, masks and sanitiser while a vaccine programme is rolled out as rapidly as possible.
9/15 Even if track and trace successfully contacts people, it relies on them self-isolating. Very few people do this properly. Reasons: probably financial, social, psychological. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/11/less-than-20-of-people-in-england-self-isolate-fully-sage-says
10/15 Myth number three: the idea that if an organisation or business takes sufficient precautions (sani, disty, visors etc), then it can be deemed 'Covid-secure'. I have a feeling people will look back at this concept in the future and respond with a hollow laugh.
11/15 It's been so sad to see owners of pubs, bars, restaurants etc saying: 'But we're safe. We've taken all the measures we were told to. And now we're told we have to close.' The reality is that while mitigations can help slow Covid, they never really make a place 'secure'.
12/15 Which brings me to my final myth: the idea of the highly compliant public. Respondents tell pollsters that they want tougher rules, but are we confident that people really practise what they preach?
13/15 Anecdote is no substitute for data. But unfortunately data on people's self-reported compliance or advocacy for tough regulations is absolutely not the same as their actual behaviour. And that's hidden in stuff that really isn't been measured.
14/15 We all know of people who meet up with those outside their 'bubble'; people who are confused about the tier rules; people who provide their own idiosyncratic interpretation of those rules; and those who justify their breaches while condemning those of others.
15/15 This period is messy, dangerous, confusing and sees the interplay of a whole range of different factors - epidemiological, economic, political, social and psychological. Before we write the story of Covid, we probably need some distance from it to take stock.
