Read on Twitter
I got a decent amount of pushback from people last night for saying the key to Trubisky's success is playing bad defenses, so here's some numbers to back that up. A short thread...
The table below shows Trubisky's performance against defenses sorted by passer rating allowed since 2018. Generally, bottom ~10 defenses give up passer ratings in the 100s, top ~10 in the 80s, and the middle ones in the 90s.
Look at Trubisky's performance vs. each group compared to what those defenses typically allow. He's way better than expected against the bad defenses and way worse than expected against everybody else, even after accounting for how good or bad the opposing defense is.
For a little more context, 4 of Trubisky's 6 games so far in 2020 have come against defenses in the 100+ passer rating allowed category, including both of his 2 recent games against Detroit and Houston (who both have a bottom 5 pass defense).
This is why I don't care - at all - that Mitch is lighting these teams up. He's consistently lit them up since 2018. You can't win in the NFL if your QB is only good against bad defenses.
Trubisky has yet to face a good defense in 2020. The 2 average ones he faced - GB and NYG - absolutely shut him down. 59% completion, 5.8 yards/attempt, 5 TD to 4 INT (and 2 of those TD came in garbage time against GB with the Bears down by 20+ in the 4th quarter).
This dude is in year 4 and is the same QB he's always been. Why are you still getting excited every time he puts up numbers against a terrible defense? Have you seriously not learned a thing in the last 3 years?
So yeah, you can skip me with the "this time, he's turned the corner" bull shit. Y'all did the same thing in 2019 when he faced 2 terrible defenses back to back (DET and DAL) and put up big numbers.
That stretch came with 3 weeks left in the season too. Guess what he did over the final 3 games, when he had to face real defenses again?
59% completion, 5.6 yards/attempt, 1 TD, 2 INT.
59% completion, 5.6 yards/attempt, 1 TD, 2 INT.
JAX pass defense just as bad as HOU, but MIN and GB are middle of the pack. Trubisky won't face a single top 10 pass defense all year, because he was benched for all the good ones (LAR, NO, IND). So don't be fooled by his season-ending stat line. We all made that mistake in 2018.
Trubisky is the same bumslayer he's always been. He's done nothing to prove he can consistently perform against good defenses, and at this point it's too late. That's why he's going to be somebody's backup in 2021.
