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Why schools need to be closed now in Ontario. 
Let's start with the backdrop. Ontario's situation is worsening. Hospitalizations are rising rapidly and are closing in on the Wave 1 peak. More
#Covid19Ontario #onpoli #onhealth #onted
An emergency meeting of the Ontario Hospital Association is taking place today.
The spread of covid has widened to include most regions. This is not a Toronto/Peel situation. The Ontario framework has seen cases double since it was announced. (These colours represent weekly case rate levels.)
Moreover, there is a growing consensus that tougher measures are needed, the partial targeted measures slowed covid in Europe but were not enough. https://twitter.com/Billius27/status/1338945531222044672
But what is needed? A world-renowned expert, Dr. Zoe Hyde, has pointed to school transmission. "Infections are decreasing in adults, but increasing in children." https://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1339153697272557568
In Ontario, we see test positivity rising in the school age groups as well. In fact the highest test positivity (7%) is in the 14-17 year old group. That rate exceeds the WHO guidance level.
After we exclude the congregate care and living outbreaks (which cannot be closed), workplaces and schools are the next primary source of outbreak cases. There are 4,828 public schools in Ontario, this should come as no surprise. 913 currently have at least one case.
Yet surveillance testing has been practically non existent. Many school children infections are asymptomatic and without testing, go unseen. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/covid-19-asymptomatic-testing-schools-1.5824737
And new *identified* cases are rising consistently now. We can expect over 160 new school-related cases a day now.
Quebec (which I consider one of the closest peer comparisions to Ontario) announced yesterday that schools will be closed until Jan. 11 to help curb the spread of the 2nd wave. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-covid-19-businesses-shutdown-christmas-1.5841720?__vfz=medium%3Dsharebar
Ontario faces tough and urgent choices, schools are not the only intervention needed but new modelling suggests that countries who do act on schools should expect to see significant reductions in Rt. (-37.9% in this example)
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/early/2020/12/15/science.abd9338.full.pdf
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/early/2020/12/15/science.abd9338.full.pdf
With the holidays near, a one month closure now should have less impact on education and should help reduce the expected surge coming as a result of holiday-related gatherings. Ontario's trend demands strong action now and schools are part of the solution. /end
cc @imgrund @covidschoolsCA @jkwan_md @AAlJaishi @Sflecce @fordnation @BogochIsaac @DFisman @ASPphysician @IrfanDhalla @AnthonyDaleOHA @tdsb
