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Greetings, @PeteButtigieg, welcome to the wonderful world of the Department of Transportation. Here you will meet, well, me from time to time. So I thought maybe I'd compose a briefing file for you in the open so you and everyone else knows:
Surprisingly enough, you are inheriting a big mess at maritime administration, and one that is not the fault of the Trump Administration. Indeed, the Maritime Administration over the past four years has been vocal about the need to fix said mess, and has made some progress on it.
What is the mess? Well, lemme tell ya. It's generations in the making and its only getting worse the longer time slips away. Let's talk about it, Pete! And you should care, because as a former sailor you'll understand the importance of the sea lanes of communication.
See, the bulk of the ships we have in reserve to transport men and materiel to theaters of war are in appalling shape.
This should get you started:
The US military ran the largest stress test of its sealift fleet in years. It’s in big trouble. https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2019/12/31/the-us-military-ran-the-largest-stress-test-of-its-sealift-fleet-in-years-its-in-big-trouble/
This should get you started:
The US military ran the largest stress test of its sealift fleet in years. It’s in big trouble. https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2019/12/31/the-us-military-ran-the-largest-stress-test-of-its-sealift-fleet-in-years-its-in-big-trouble/
Because of the work that the Trump Administration and the Pentagon can rightly take some credit for, it has become clear that less than half of the ships we'd need to sustain a major war effort would be available if called. They are falling apart.
The Maritime Administration, in the building where your picture will be under Biden's, mans, trains and equips these ships. But the Navy is responsible for furnishing them. This makes the problem an interagency one, so maybe take Lloyd Austin out for socially distanced Drinks?
Now, the Navy has been looking for ways to replace these ancient ships and is gravitating toward buying used, which presents its own set of problems (spares, maintenance of multiple makes and models, etc), but in the meantime they are providing some money to extend service lives.
But, Mayor (future Secretary) Pete, I gotta tell you: They are using that money to fix really basic stuff -- deficiencies that mean the ships aren't safe to get underway unless they are fixed. They aren't even really getting close to extending service lives.
Like, they're having to replace steel. It's like that, it's that bad.
Now let's just get to the meat of why you should care. In the event of activation, these ships get transferred to U.S. Transportation Command for wartime use. But your agency keeps them ready to fight.
Now let's just get to the meat of why you should care. In the event of activation, these ships get transferred to U.S. Transportation Command for wartime use. But your agency keeps them ready to fight.
In the event of a major war -- not just Russia or China but perhaps Iran, North Korea, Iraq 5 (The Final Showdown ... Maybe) -- TRANSCOM has said that 90 percent of all equipment used by the Army and Marine Corps in a major contingency would be transported by sea.
Some of that is resident in Military Sealift Command, but the surge capacity really depends on this very unwell Ready Reserve Fleet, that I must stress is now going to be your responsibility.
Here's more background on this: https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2018/10/08/the-army-is-preparing-to-fight-in-europe-but-can-it-even-get-there/
Here's more background on this: https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2018/10/08/the-army-is-preparing-to-fight-in-europe-but-can-it-even-get-there/
Here's the deal, Mr. (future) Secretary: This situation is going to get much, much worse in the very near future.
Thirty of 65 roll-on/roll-off vessels need to be retired within the next 15 years, and every one of the special mission ships as well (Crane ships and the like).
Thirty of 65 roll-on/roll-off vessels need to be retired within the next 15 years, and every one of the special mission ships as well (Crane ships and the like).
The DoD requirement for government-owned sealift capacity is 15.3 million square feet, with 19.6 million square feet needed overall, the extra capacity coming from 60 U.S.-flagged commercial ships in the Maritime Security Program available to the military in a crisis.
Right now we are on a course to see the capacity essentially collapse: if the issue isn’t addressed, the force falls to about 12 million square feet of sealift capacity by 2030 and somewhere around 7.5 million square feet of capacity by 2035, less than half the sealift required.
You'll note that around 2035, we expect the Chinese Navy to be about as dangerous to us and our interests as it will be.
PACOM has said this sealift shortfall is a crisis. More background: https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2019/10/14/despite-rising-awareness-of-critical-us-sealift-shortfalls-solutions-are-elusive/
PACOM has said this sealift shortfall is a crisis. More background: https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2019/10/14/despite-rising-awareness-of-critical-us-sealift-shortfalls-solutions-are-elusive/
There are a number of ideas out there on how to fix this and conflicting opinions on how to go about it: Some even question the need for a government owned fleet at all (Why not just charter?). But without SOME solution in place and quickly, we start to lose credibility.
You see, most of our military and equipment is here in the United States. Russia knows this. China knows this. Iran knows this.
If we can't reliably transport kit over water because we lack the capacity, it kind of defeats the point of having a military.
If we can't reliably transport kit over water because we lack the capacity, it kind of defeats the point of having a military.
If you got held up and you owned a gun but it was in the safe back at your house, well, it wouldn't do you much good now would it?
So that should get you started. There's a lot to get into on this and that's just the beginning. But good luck with confirmation. I'll be seeing ya.
So that should get you started. There's a lot to get into on this and that's just the beginning. But good luck with confirmation. I'll be seeing ya.
