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While looking at speculative pharmaceutical stocks I am reminded of why I am averse to these risky picks.
#DDDD was compelling enough, though, to break this rule. The 10+ treatments under trial, industry-leading IP portfolio, and comparable undervaluation are inescapable.
#DDDD was compelling enough, though, to break this rule. The 10+ treatments under trial, industry-leading IP portfolio, and comparable undervaluation are inescapable.
The MicroRx platform is "the most productive platform in the microbiome space."
Even with similar efficacy to conventional treatments, the safety profile of Live Biotherapeutics would make it the treatment of choice if all trials are passed.
#DDDD only needs one to re-rate.
Even with similar efficacy to conventional treatments, the safety profile of Live Biotherapeutics would make it the treatment of choice if all trials are passed.
#DDDD only needs one to re-rate.
How do I know it's all not bluster?
Merck have partnered with 4D for the MRx0518/Keytruda trial, in addition to a partnership on bacterial vaccines.
The vaccine partnership heralds a potential $347.5m in milestone payments.
#DDDD's current market cap? About £122m, or $165m.
Merck have partnered with 4D for the MRx0518/Keytruda trial, in addition to a partnership on bacterial vaccines.
The vaccine partnership heralds a potential $347.5m in milestone payments.
#DDDD's current market cap? About £122m, or $165m.
Directors own 12.7% of the company; their interests and those of shareholders are aligned.
The results of the Blautix IBS treatment were not accurately conveyed: they represent more than enough positive data to go for a phase three trial.
The results of the Blautix IBS treatment were not accurately conveyed: they represent more than enough positive data to go for a phase three trial.
The World Gastroenterology Organisation reports that a third to a half of all IBS cases globally are IBS-M.
The global IBS market sits at c. $3.3bn in 2020.
A third to a half of this market for #DDDD is a potential $1.1bn-$1.65bn a year in revenues.
The global IBS market sits at c. $3.3bn in 2020.
A third to a half of this market for #DDDD is a potential $1.1bn-$1.65bn a year in revenues.
#DDDD's Blautix can provide a treatment where there previously was none for IBS-M, hence @4dpharmaplc are market leaders in this area.
From my research c. 60% of phase III trials result in a success.
This means that either the market is implying no partner for the P3 trial..
From my research c. 60% of phase III trials result in a success.
This means that either the market is implying no partner for the P3 trial..
..or an unprecedented probability of failure.
For me, I do not see why this is the case. I would love if someone could enlighten me on that.
Steering away from IBS, what about #DDDD's work on oncology, asthma and Alzheimer's?
4D only need one treatment to pass all trials..
For me, I do not see why this is the case. I would love if someone could enlighten me on that.
Steering away from IBS, what about #DDDD's work on oncology, asthma and Alzheimer's?
4D only need one treatment to pass all trials..
..to rerate to multiples of where they already are.
Final point (as Twitter loves to talk about this):
Seres Therapeutics $MCRB is valued at $2.35bn. With #DDDD's superior platform, number of potential treatments and IP estate, I see it as highly likely that..
Final point (as Twitter loves to talk about this):
Seres Therapeutics $MCRB is valued at $2.35bn. With #DDDD's superior platform, number of potential treatments and IP estate, I see it as highly likely that..
..they could have a similar rise. It is why #DDDD is the only pharma stock that I am confident in holding; it is quite clearly undervalued on an absolute and comparable basis.
For an overview of the investment case for 4d Pharma, please visit here: https://shreysnotepad.com/2020/09/15/diversifying-into-pharma/
For an overview of the investment case for 4d Pharma, please visit here: https://shreysnotepad.com/2020/09/15/diversifying-into-pharma/
Another point not mentioned in my #DDDD article above is the implied probability of at least one success.
This is the research I have based this off of: https://academic.oup.com/biostatistics/article/20/2/273/4817524
In the US, the probability of an industry-sponsored drug going from phase 1 to application is 13.8%.
This is the research I have based this off of: https://academic.oup.com/biostatistics/article/20/2/273/4817524
In the US, the probability of an industry-sponsored drug going from phase 1 to application is 13.8%.
Extrapolating this to the UK (which, given our speed of approval to the Covid vaccine, may be an underestimate), it means that assuming #DDDD have 10 treatments going into P1:
The chance of them all failing is (1-0.138)^10 = 22.6%, implying the chance of >=1 success is 77.4%.
The chance of them all failing is (1-0.138)^10 = 22.6%, implying the chance of >=1 success is 77.4%.
This is without taking into account #DDDD's treatments' favourable safety profile and the fact that Blautix has already seen a successful phase 2 trial.
Given this new information, I'd adjust the probability of at least 1 success to 90-95%.
Given this new information, I'd adjust the probability of at least 1 success to 90-95%.
With the total addressable markets for #DDDD's treatments, one successful treatment implies c. £1bn valuation, at minimum. Imagine if multiple were approved.
Even with a pessimistic outlook on @4dpharmaplc's trial results, it is easy to see how the SP can multiply 10x at least.
Even with a pessimistic outlook on @4dpharmaplc's trial results, it is easy to see how the SP can multiply 10x at least.
