OMG! Finally we have some surveillance estimates of #LongCovid. My call since July to #CountLongCovid has been answered by @ONS. They report similar estimates to what I expected: 1 in 5 #COVID19 cases still symptomatic at 5 weeks & 1 in 10 at 12 weeks. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-long-covid-ons-data-b1774821.html

The data:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/datasets/prevalenceoflongcovidsymptomsandcovid19complications

Important things to note about the ONS estimates:
denominator includes asymptomatic cases so percentages out of those who were initially symptomatic will be higher
the list of symptoms is the one asked by ONS for initial symptoms therefore some common #LongCovid symptoms...

..such as chest heaviness/pain, palpitation &neurological symptoms r missing. I’ve been told the list of questions about symptoms will be expanded in the new year
breakdown by age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation not available yet but will come hopefully
the importance of these..

..estimates compared to other studies is the denominator of all those tested positive and the longitudinal nature of follow up rather than cross-sectional. The recruitment is not determined by the outcome (LC) like studies recruiting from support groups or clinics for example...

..as such studies may give an over-estimates
an even better way to #CountLongCovid is to follow-up everyone testing positive in the UK via Test & Trace and text them to ask if they’ve recovered or not by 5, 12 weeks & beyond
this doesn’t solve the problem of diagnosing..

..people with LC who have no positive test result for various reasons of availability, accessibility, timing & disincentives to testing. For those we need standardised clinical case definitions, but we can base the probability of developing the condition on figures such as above.