don’t think people have realised yet how big this election is ... This election is turning point in electoral politics of Kerala

Just got a call from my uncle (last standing LDF supporter in family) saying “it’s time to change”

My analysis on how Kerala is going to change

1. Muslims have shifted Enmass to CPM. This will make up for loss of Hindu votes CPM suffered due to Sabarimala

2. Christian dominated Kerala congress has moved to CPM ales LDF taking a chunk of Christian votes

3. Because of these two changes LDF will maintain their vote share

4. INC led UDF is in for tough time. Their vote bank was IUML (Muslim votes) & Kerala Congress (Christian) votes

5. Rise of organisations like PFI has weakened IUML and this is going to get worse

6. Major chunk of Kerala congress has moved to LDF. small section of Christians have moved to BJP

7. Large section of Hindus have moved to BJP from INC. My village abt 65-75% Hindus vote for BJP

8. This basically means INC is on a downward trajectory with on chance of revival

9. My sense is INC led UDF will disintegrate. It’s just matter of time

10. BJP is on rise. Nair community has complete shifted to BJP. Sections of another influential community ezhava also support BJP.

11. Modi is immensely popular among large sections

12. As people start to see BJP as viable alternative .. it’s growth will gather momentum. You can expect parties from use joining NDA

13. Eventually I see a Kerala where LDF and NDA will be prominent parties

Thoughts