Read on Twitter
Sigh. Here we are once again with the "deaths among cases" vs "deaths directly from COVID-19."
There is a reason why we can expect that lower number to catch up with the larger one. Let me explain: https://twitter.com/meltzere/status/1338940721550811139
There is a reason why we can expect that lower number to catch up with the larger one. Let me explain: https://twitter.com/meltzere/status/1338940721550811139
First, thing to know is that there is a lag in hospitalization & death data because of how COVID-19 progresses.
Death data lags even further because of how long it takes for death certificates to be reported back to the state.
Death data lags even further because of how long it takes for death certificates to be reported back to the state.
When CDPHE began reporting these numbers, they essentially began reporting two types of data sources.
Let's talk about what "deaths among cases" first.
Let's talk about what "deaths among cases" first.
The “deaths among cases” category is a real-time count of deaths.
CDPHE collects this data from hospitals or contact tracing, case investigations etc... This data is often collected before a death certificate is registered & processed.
CDPHE collects this data from hospitals or contact tracing, case investigations etc... This data is often collected before a death certificate is registered & processed.
Collecting data on "death among cases" helps epidemiologists understand the severity of the disease and who is dying.
It is widely believed that COVID-19 deaths are underreported. This is because 1) the lack of testing
2)We did not know much about the disease. We didn't initially know that it was causing clotting and affecting bodies in ways it might with other conditions.
2)We did not know much about the disease. We didn't initially know that it was causing clotting and affecting bodies in ways it might with other conditions.
Ops. Posted a tweet before I finished.
So what I was saying is that the "deaths among COVID-19" data is essentially epidemiologists creating a bucket of deaths so that they don't miss anyone.
So what I was saying is that the "deaths among COVID-19" data is essentially epidemiologists creating a bucket of deaths so that they don't miss anyone.
It is possible that in this bucket there are deaths from a probable case was ruled to be caused by something else. These deaths will be removed from this count.
So when we look at this number that is approaching 4K, we can say that most of these deaths are due to COVID-19.
So when we look at this number that is approaching 4K, we can say that most of these deaths are due to COVID-19.
So why is the "deaths due to COVID-19" count much lower?
This is from a completely different data source. It only comes from death certificate data, which has a lag of several weeks, so the count is always expected to increase.
This is from a completely different data source. It only comes from death certificate data, which has a lag of several weeks, so the count is always expected to increase.
Most of the time the gap between "deaths due to COVID-19" to "Deaths among cases" is narrower than it is now.
But as @MegWingerter reported today, death-certificate data also takes weeks to get to the state. It is expected to increase http://dpo.st/3mgGPAc
But as @MegWingerter reported today, death-certificate data also takes weeks to get to the state. It is expected to increase http://dpo.st/3mgGPAc
So we can look at the "deaths among cases" and get an idea of by how much and how quickly COVID-19 deaths are trending.
^^ that explains these two numbers and why you "deaths among cases" is a data point that we look at to understand the severity of the disease & pandemic.
But there is also a third category.
But there is also a third category.
Public health experts say that to understand the "true toll of the pandemic" we must also look at deaths indirectly caused by the pandemic.
This is also complex, but overall deaths are up in 2020.
This is also complex, but overall deaths are up in 2020.
I wrote about how Colorado tracks deaths and how they determine if a death is a COVID-19 fatality last month. You can read more in this story. https://www.denverpost.com/2020/12/01/how-covid-deaths-counted-colorado/
