Let's talk about #Russia, #Turkey and #West for a moment. SHORT THREAD.
2. More than that, though, the article mostly talks about how & why #Russia and #Turkey don't "naturally belong to each other". This is also clear to anyone familiar with history of IR though it largely ignores how the realities for #Moscow and #Ankara changed ever since.
3. What the article doesn't talk about - is how would #Europe incentivize #Turkey to stay "in its camp" when Europe
(a) doesn't really want Turkey fully in its camp
(b) can't incentivize Turkey with smth Ankara really needs.
4. For decades #Turkey saw the West as a way to strengthen its own power and status. Now #Ankara wants to be in a higher league of world politics.
Europe/West doesn't want this to happen cuz stronger Turkey is a threat to Europe/West (btw so is #Russia).
5. At the time when the international system is increasingly becoming de-Westernized, #Turkey sees Russia as a resource it can use to strengthen its own strategic sovereignty (from the West), while #Russia sees Turkey as a tool for increasing its own authority as a great power.
6. Tons of issues b/n Russia and Turkey that everyone is talking about are correct (distrust, disagreements all that jazz). Yet as long as the partnership makes the two stronger, they'll stick togethed. I discussed this idea here: https://carnegie.ru/commentary/81330
7. Until there's recognition in the West that #Turkey is not some wallpaper to peel off but a strong actor with its own very ambitious interests, the problem will be frame around #Russia "stealing our allies here and there". It's not about Russia, it's about you yourself.
/END
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