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What can we expect from the review of tiers tomorrow? A thread:
Firstly, remember some local politicians were saying a fortnight ago that they didn't expect Nottinghamshire to come out of tier 3 this side of Christmas, and that doesn't appear to have changed...
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Firstly, remember some local politicians were saying a fortnight ago that they didn't expect Nottinghamshire to come out of tier 3 this side of Christmas, and that doesn't appear to have changed...
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The Government has maintained throughout that the review is genuine - "your tier is not your destiny" as Boris Johnson said - and the most up to date data will be used when making the decision tomorrow
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Chief Whip @Mark_Spencer told us this a few weeks back:
https://twitter.com/HughCasswell/status/1332372563490697220
But what would be a big improvement? Short answer is we don't know because while the Government has set out the 5 criteria used when deciding tiers, it hasn't set thresholds within each one
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https://twitter.com/HughCasswell/status/1332372563490697220
But what would be a big improvement? Short answer is we don't know because while the Government has set out the 5 criteria used when deciding tiers, it hasn't set thresholds within each one
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Five criteria are:
The overall rate of cases
Rate in the over 60s
Rate at which cases are rising or falling
Proportion of tests coming back positive
Pressure on the local healthcare system
So I'll try to go through each one...
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The overall rate of cases
Rate in the over 60s
Rate at which cases are rising or falling
Proportion of tests coming back positive
Pressure on the local healthcare system
So I'll try to go through each one...
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Overall rate of cases
As I've said before, it's considered a bit of a blunt instrument but it's the simplest factor and the one that ultimately drives the other four. Has been showing a broad downward trend for a while, but remember that was from a very high peak...
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As I've said before, it's considered a bit of a blunt instrument but it's the simplest factor and the one that ultimately drives the other four. Has been showing a broad downward trend for a while, but remember that was from a very high peak...
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It's another crude calculation, but take an average of the case rates per 100k population across all Notts areas and...
On 25th Nov (day before last tier decision was made): 224
Today: 171
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On 25th Nov (day before last tier decision was made): 224
Today: 171
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So it has dropped overall BUT over the last few days the figures have shown signs of levelling off and maybe even going up again. Just look at this graph of daily confirmed cases from the Local Resilience Forum dashboard:
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That slight uptick hasn't gone unnoticed and could factor into the decision making. As we know from today there's real concern about the impact of the relaxation of rules for Christmas so Government may want to mitigate impact by keeping tougher restrictions beforehand
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Rate in the over 60s
Big problems here. Latest BBC analysis shows between 2nd & 9th December, the rate in the over 60s actually increased in all but one part of Nottinghamshire...
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Big problems here. Latest BBC analysis shows between 2nd & 9th December, the rate in the over 60s actually increased in all but one part of Nottinghamshire...
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In week to 9th Dec, rate in over 60s (% increase/decrease on previous week in brackets):
Ashfield: 156 (+48%)
Bassetlaw: 350 (+20%)
Broxtowe: 195 (+57%)
Gedling: 217 (+37%)
Mansfield: 129 (-32%)
Newark & Sherwood: 189 (+4%)
Nottingham City: 136 (+67%)
Rushcliffe: 112 (+50%)
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Ashfield: 156 (+48%)
Bassetlaw: 350 (+20%)
Broxtowe: 195 (+57%)
Gedling: 217 (+37%)
Mansfield: 129 (-32%)
Newark & Sherwood: 189 (+4%)
Nottingham City: 136 (+67%)
Rushcliffe: 112 (+50%)
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Rate at which cases are rising or falling
Tough to judge because rate of change they're looking for has never been quantified. Best we can say is that change in averages I mentioned (224 to 171) has taken 3 weeks. Not sure that's fast enough plus there's now that uptick
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Tough to judge because rate of change they're looking for has never been quantified. Best we can say is that change in averages I mentioned (224 to 171) has taken 3 weeks. Not sure that's fast enough plus there's now that uptick
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Proportion of tests coming back positive
Told this was key when deciding our tier before. At that point 10% of tests carried out were coming back positive, which was considered too high. Another tough one to judge as data isn't as readily available as for others but...
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Told this was key when deciding our tier before. At that point 10% of tests carried out were coming back positive, which was considered too high. Another tough one to judge as data isn't as readily available as for others but...
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...I'm told the highest positivity rate in Notts is currently Bassetlaw at 9.8%, lowest is Rushcliffe at 3.7%
So overall positivity rate seems to have dropped. But dropped by enough? Again I'm not sure
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So overall positivity rate seems to have dropped. But dropped by enough? Again I'm not sure
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Pressure on the local healthcare system
Also very important. We get weekly figures from the CCG about how Notts hospitals are faring
Here's how they were doing around the time of the last tier decision:
https://twitter.com/HughCasswell/status/1332349750797094912
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Also very important. We get weekly figures from the CCG about how Notts hospitals are faring
Here's how they were doing around the time of the last tier decision:
https://twitter.com/HughCasswell/status/1332349750797094912
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So signs of improvement in hospitals BUT I'm told they consider projected pressure as well. Above data on infections in over 60s, combined with fears about Christmas and the fact Jan/Feb tend to be toughest for hospitals anyway means it may not be as promising as it seems
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Also still a question over geography. We've heard conflicting things recently with some suggestion different districts could move tiers individually, but other reports it will still be done regionally
Here's what the County's DPH said on Friday:
https://twitter.com/HughCasswell/status/1337375278256037888
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Here's what the County's DPH said on Friday:
https://twitter.com/HughCasswell/status/1337375278256037888
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There have been questions over the Government's decision to move only parts of Hertfordshire & Essex into tier 3 this week and the precedent that sets. It shows they're open to moving areas between tiers in a more granular way than before...
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If anywhere here could make a case for "decoupling" from the rest of the county, it would be Rushcliffe with its lower case rate
But then there's the problem of policing it - could you really stop people from unnecessarily going from one side of the Trent to the other?
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But then there's the problem of policing it - could you really stop people from unnecessarily going from one side of the Trent to the other?
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Those local geographical factors are, I'm told, taken into account.
This was said on Monday:
https://twitter.com/HughCasswell/status/1338437097070407682
Overall, it seems most likely that Nottinghamshire will still be treated as one
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This was said on Monday:
https://twitter.com/HughCasswell/status/1338437097070407682
Overall, it seems most likely that Nottinghamshire will still be treated as one
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So in summary - yes things have generally improved but it's not a simple equation
The Government has promised to explain its decision making but Labour MPs are calling for those thresholds to be more clearly defined (e.g. "you've passed on this one, failed on this one...")
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The Government has promised to explain its decision making but Labour MPs are calling for those thresholds to be more clearly defined (e.g. "you've passed on this one, failed on this one...")
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All things considered, it would be a surprise if any part of Nottinghamshire were to move out of tier 3 just yet.
But while the decision is being made tomorrow, that doesn't mean we find out tomorrow...we'll of course let you know as soon as we can!
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But while the decision is being made tomorrow, that doesn't mean we find out tomorrow...we'll of course let you know as soon as we can!
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