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Here are LA County's rules, as I understand them. LA and CA friends, please correct me if I am wrong: https://twitter.com/ajlamesa/status/1338899080634744833
There are three ways schools can close for Covid-19 in California. One is if the hospitals become overwhelmed to the point that the state declares an “emergency break” to school reopenings.
Another is if the school itself has more than 5% of staff and students testing positive for Covid-19 within 14 days. Also, if 1/4 of schools in a district close for Covid-19, the whole district has to close. Once a school closes, it has to stay closed for 14 days.
The third way has to do with California’s four-tiered, color coded system of Covid-19 designations, which tracks counties by the number of Covid-19 cases recorded daily and the percentage of positive tests administered, both averaged over 7 days.
The most severely impacted tier is Purple. It means that the county has more than 7 cases per 100k residents, or more than 8% test positivity. Most of the state, including LA County is in the Purple tier.
The next tier down is Red, with 4-7 new cases per 100k residents daily and a test positivity rate of 5-8%. Schools CAN be open in this tier.
In person instruction isn't allowed in the Purple tier, with two exceptions: Grade schools K-6 can get a state waiver, as long as the daily infection rate is lower than 14 residents per 100k population and the teachers union, parents and the community agree.
Or, schools in the Purple tier can offer instruction for small groups of students, or “cohorts.”
Or, if your school had been in a lower tier, and teaching in person and then your county had a surge that lifted it into the Purple tier, the state lets your school stay open. But you have to increase Covid-19 testing for staff significantly.
But if your school was not in person, you have to wait for county cases to drop below a weekly average of 7 per 100k population, and test positivity to fall below a weekly average of 8%. Plus those rates have to stay below those thresholds for either 7 or 14 days, I forget.
Prior to last week, when cases in Los Angeles County spiked badly, LAUSD was almost entirely remote, tho offering one-on-one tutoring in person to a small fraction of its nearly 700k students.
On Dec. 7, after the county issued a stay-at-home order, they were all sent home to learn remotely. The change will remain in effect until the next school semester begins Jan. 11.
When that happens, LAUSD will look at the infection level in the surrounding county and the percentage of positive tests and then make its decision. At the least, the county’s metrics will have to fall below 7 cases per 100k population/8% positivity rate.
That, or the elementary schools will have to persuade parents, community members and LAUSD's union to apply for a waiver. Which is unlikely, even though K-6 schools in some other LA area districts do have waivers and are in person now.
More likely, alas, is another post-holiday wave of infections. If that happens, instruction will remain remote. County health officials doubt the stars will align for a school reopening any time before springtime, probably not even before summer. LAUSD chief says end of 2021.
