We now have data for both Pfizer & Moderna vaccines, so a brief return to an important issue: do they work as well in minority populations?
For starters: in the trials, 3,096 African Americans got a placebo. 3,127 got a vaccine.
COVID cases with placebo: 11
With vaccine: 0
/1
For starters: in the trials, 3,096 African Americans got a placebo. 3,127 got a vaccine.
COVID cases with placebo: 11
With vaccine: 0
/1
You may have seen press about this paper, which raised concerns about disparate efficacy. Clinical trials have a long history of being too white, too male, and too healthy, and these types of analyses can help identify issues we need to investigate.
/2 https://www.csail.mit.edu/news/mit-study-covid-19-vaccines-may-be-less-effective-asian-americans
/2 https://www.csail.mit.edu/news/mit-study-covid-19-vaccines-may-be-less-effective-asian-americans
The Pfizer & Moderna trials were ~80% white, 51% male, and >50% low-risk for severe COVID. Nonetheless, the trials were large enough to accumulate useful data on non-white participants. It's generally favorable across all races, but with caveats that warrant more research.
/3
/3
0-vs-11 cases in African Americans isn't nearly as statistically robust as 12-vs-233 in white participants, but it's more than enough to be certain of a strong effect. How strong is unclear.
But things get more complicated for Asians, American Indians, and Pacific Islanders.
/4
But things get more complicated for Asians, American Indians, and Pacific Islanders.
/4
Again pooling the two trials, we get:
Asians
1/1,412 vaccine vs 7/1,492 placebo
American Indians
0/211 vs 1/214
Pacific Islanders
0/83 vs 1/59
It's great how this is all favorable! We can still infer the vaccine works. But it's too small to infer if it works as well.
/5
Asians
1/1,412 vaccine vs 7/1,492 placebo
American Indians
0/211 vs 1/214
Pacific Islanders
0/83 vs 1/59
It's great how this is all favorable! We can still infer the vaccine works. But it's too small to infer if it works as well.
/5
None of this suggests anyone should avoid the vaccines—they clearly works to some extent for everybody. Rather, it's a reminder that disparities lurk everywhere in healthcare, potentially rendering problems invisible, and we need to search them out and shine a light on them.
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Coda: here's the FDA briefing papers.
Pfizer's vaccine: https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download
Moderna's vaccine: https://www.fda.gov/media/144434/download
Pfizer's vaccine: https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download
Moderna's vaccine: https://www.fda.gov/media/144434/download