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Today @educationgovuk publishes data on local attendance rates during this term. We’ve done some rapid analysis of this to see what it shows.Our report is here: https://www.childrenscommissioner.gov.uk/report/school-attendance-since-september/
Quick summary of findings
1. Cases of Covid-19 in schools are rare given overall attendance:
- Pupils with confirmed Covid account for 0.2% of all pupils, and equate to < 1 per school overall
- PHE-recorded “outbreaks” (defined as 2+ cases linked to same setting) occurring in < 1 in 100 schools each week
- Pupils with confirmed Covid account for 0.2% of all pupils, and equate to < 1 per school overall
- PHE-recorded “outbreaks” (defined as 2+ cases linked to same setting) occurring in < 1 in 100 schools each week
2. Only a small % of pupils missing school due to Covid are confirmed cases
- Pupils with confirmed Covid are only 2.4% of all Covid-related absence
- For each of these pupils, a further 35 are sent home to self isolate & another 3 are unable to attend because of school issues
- Pupils with confirmed Covid are only 2.4% of all Covid-related absence
- For each of these pupils, a further 35 are sent home to self isolate & another 3 are unable to attend because of school issues
3. In some LAs schools send 50+ additional pupils home to self-isolate, for each confirmed Covid case
But this is less common than it was 4 weeks ago, which is why overall attendance is better than it was then. When this ratio is higher, attendance is lower – and vice versa
But this is less common than it was 4 weeks ago, which is why overall attendance is better than it was then. When this ratio is higher, attendance is lower – and vice versa
4. It’s no surprise that attendance is lower in areas with higher rates of Covid. After all, the best way to make schools safe and drive up attendance is to drive down community transmission.
BUT it’s not a clear-cut relationship, as the next graph shows:
BUT it’s not a clear-cut relationship, as the next graph shows:
The relationship is negative but there is really wide variation around it. Many local areas with same local Covid rate have wildly different attendance rates – and vice versa.
5. Some LAs manage to achieve high attendance even with high community rates of Covid.
On 3 Dec, Blackburn with Darwen, Redbridge, Lincolnshire, Barking and Dagenham, Hartlepool and Leicester all achieved 80+% attendance – despite a local Covid rate of 250+ per 100,000 people
On 3 Dec, Blackburn with Darwen, Redbridge, Lincolnshire, Barking and Dagenham, Hartlepool and Leicester all achieved 80+% attendance – despite a local Covid rate of 250+ per 100,000 people
6. Using the attendance data, we’ve calculated our own estimates of missed classroom learning. Overall, pupils have missed 5 days since September due to Covid (3.5 days in primary, 6.3 days in secondary)
This is small: before the summer hols, pupils missed 65 days on average!
This is small: before the summer hols, pupils missed 65 days on average!
7. It also means a national 1-week closure of schools, or 1-week delay to start of next term), would double the amount of missed classroom learning this term. And a 2-week closure/delay would triple it.
Blanket measures like these have a huge impact on overall learning.
Blanket measures like these have a huge impact on overall learning.
8. We also show this varies across England. Here are the 10 LAs with most missed classroom learning since September:
Download the full data here: https://www.childrenscommissioner.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/cco-la-missed-classroom-learning-estimates-autumn-2020.xlsx
Download the full data here: https://www.childrenscommissioner.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/cco-la-missed-classroom-learning-estimates-autumn-2020.xlsx
9. These areas generally had lower educational outcomes and higher poverty rates before Covid-19. Unfortunately we see this pattern across England as a whole: more disadvantaged areas have been hit harder.
Missed schooling is a big social justice problem.
Missed schooling is a big social justice problem.
10. So we’re worried about some schools and areas being hit with a quadruple whammy:
- High disruption to attendance
- Increasing costs of supply staff (which means less to spend on catch-up)
- High poverty and disadvantage
- Poor educational outcomes before Covid
- High disruption to attendance
- Increasing costs of supply staff (which means less to spend on catch-up)
- High poverty and disadvantage
- Poor educational outcomes before Covid
11. Today’s announcement on mass testing is a welcome, but schools also need more funding for Covid-related costs and priority access to vaccines.
The data above also shows that regional disparities can’t be ignored by the exams system and catch-up scheme.
The data above also shows that regional disparities can’t be ignored by the exams system and catch-up scheme.
12. These problems, along with increasing community levels of Covid, must be addressed. But with enough will and resources, it’s possible to deal with these without needing schools to close en masse.
13. Cases among children may have started rising again, but cases are going up across ALL age groups following the relaxation of the 2nd lockdown.
We are seeing an end-of-lockdown effect, not a schools-being-open effect.
We are seeing an end-of-lockdown effect, not a schools-being-open effect.
14. Before the lockdown ended, cases among children were falling and attendance was improving – while schools stayed open.
We’ve seen this happen in Europe as well (HT @jburnmurdoch)
We’ve seen this happen in Europe as well (HT @jburnmurdoch)
15. tl;dr: Schools have done really well this term, all things considered. We can see big issues in the data where schools need more help.
But it doesn’t require undoing all the progress this term, and doubling or tripling the amount of schooling that children will miss.
/END
But it doesn’t require undoing all the progress this term, and doubling or tripling the amount of schooling that children will miss.
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