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One of the potential attractions for No.10 of leaving a EU-UK deal until now was that it would compress the time available to MPs to pick over a text before having to ratify it
This moment has probably now gone
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This moment has probably now gone
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As a trip down memory lane, this what happened last year, with the Withdrawal Agt, which spent a bare minimum of time before Parliament before entering into force
And yes, that wasn't a good way to do it, and yes, many MPs now regret that
But it was still an option
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And yes, that wasn't a good way to do it, and yes, many MPs now regret that
But it was still an option
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So what's changed?
This, as set out very ably by @jonworth:
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1338861719095898114
tl;dr it might now be practically impossible for EP to give its approval before a 1 Jan start date
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This, as set out very ably by @jonworth:
https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1338861719095898114
tl;dr it might now be practically impossible for EP to give its approval before a 1 Jan start date
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Note this is a function of the lack of a ratifiable text, rather than political foot-dragging: 600+ pages of text can't be magicked up overnight into all the official EU languages, and checked by the EU26 too
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But central is that if the EP can do ex-post approval (which they'd hate), then hard to see how No.10 can avoid doing the same with Parliament (even leaving aside any primary legislation needed to enact the treaty into UK regulation)
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Indeed, Parliament might take the view that it would be inappropriate to sign off on a treaty when the other party is still to clarify that it's happy to do the same (even if the chances of an EP rebellion look very small)
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In any case, we're back into the world of lengthy Parliamentary scrutiny/debate, which comes with increased danger of deep-set opposition from CON backbench
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I'll leave you to chuck in whatever Covid-related elements in the party-No.10 relationship that you think might matter here too, but the basic point remains that the moment of maximum pressure on party has likely now passed for No.10
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