Ok the @moderna_tx vaccine data is up at the @fda in advance of the #vrbpac meeting 12/17. Let's take a look! THREAD

Starting with the big news - the cumulative cases.

So this is pretty crazy. I think they are reporting vaccine efficacy of 91.6% (86% to 95%) from randomization (this is not the primary analysis).

This is *not* the efficacy with a single dose - it's the overall program (2/)

Baseline characteristics.
10% black is similar to Pfizer trial.
25% healthcare workers. Nice to see :-)
Also 25% above age 65 - important given the risk in this age group.
3/

The protocol had some predefined "high risk" groups - around 20% of the trial are people with one of these risks.

Half of the high-risk population is diabetic.
4/

Top-line efficacy results. We've seen the 94.% already, so no surprise there. Stellar numbers.

100% in 65 and older awesome to see, but only 15 COVID cases in that age group, so precision of that estimate is somewhat limited.

5/

100% efficacy in 75 and older too, but only 3 cases here so don't take that to the bank at all.

6/

Efficacy across subgroups is always underpowered, but broadly the numbers look great.

95% even among people at high-risk.

100% in "communities of color".

7/

What about people who previously had COVID-19?

Not enough info really. Only 1 "recurrent" case it looks like - happened to occur in the placebo group.

8/

Efficacy by various risk factors. Obesity is the one we have been worried about (maybe bigger people need a higher dose?).

But looks like efficacy is good even in severe obesity.

9/

GREAT news. ZERO severe cases in the vaccine group. 11 in placebo.

(Here, severe means you were hospitalized or needed oxygen).