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2/ Overinvestment happens when an obvious investment is bought in such volume that the price rise from investors exceeds the actual demand for the card. When a future event triggers selling, the price drops as demand can't meet supply from investors all selling at once.
3/ The most obvious example is with OTWs. When an OTW is likely in TOTW, the OTW gets invested in for days. The price rises in advance of the TOTW, then when TOTW is released the price of the OTW crashes as there isn't enough demand for the supply of all investors selling.
4/ It's easy to spot overinvestment like this. You see the price rising in advance of TOTW, so you know the OTW is being invested in. It's trickier to spot overinvestment when you don't see a card obviously rising, but it can happen all the same.
5/ This is IF Valverde's price graph over the past 2 weeks. He is an obvious link investment to the free Beckham, which we've known about for weeks. His price has been reasonably stable, fluctuated between 205 and 185. Was this overinvested? It's not obvious, but yes it was.
6/ Here are graphs of some other Best Of TOTWs during the last 2 weeks:
Ben Yedder: 321k -> 232k, -28%
Mane: 483k -> 392k, -19%
Kante: 534k -> 411k, -23%
Renato: 181k -> 144k, -20%
Average: -22.5%
Ben Yedder: 321k -> 232k, -28%
Mane: 483k -> 392k, -19%
Kante: 534k -> 411k, -23%
Renato: 181k -> 144k, -20%
Average: -22.5%
7/ All the other Best of TOTWs have dropped the past 2 weeks. Through new promos and icon sbcs, Valverde has remained steady. When looking for overinvestment, the question isn't "is this card already up?". The question is "what would this card's price be if not for investment?"
8/ Given an average drop of the other Best of TOTWs of 22.5%, it's reasonable to think that Valverde's price would be around 150k if not for the Beckham link investment. Then you realize that Beckham hype had him up about 50k from where he would otherwise be, even before release
9/ The next question to ask - "Is the Beckham link worth 50k?". Given that Valverde has dropped a bit since yesterday, the answer for now appears to be no. Maybe Valverde rises slowly, but initially it was overinvested.
10/ Takeaway: In a declining market, watch out for cards that should be dropping, but aren't. This can be evidence of overinvestment. If you suspect overinvestment, sell in the hype.
