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It looks like press outlets are picking up Fauci’s comments on MSNBC yesterday saying we won’t be able to “approach some form of normality” until fall 2021. Eg, this from NY Times:
Here’s the MSNBC interview: https://www.msnbc.com/hallie-jackson/watch/fauci-vaccine-is-not-a-substitute-for-standard-public-health-measures-of-wearing-a-mask-97689669632?smid=nytcore-ios-share
I think part of what’s going on here is a much needed effort to ensure people understand that just because a small proportion of the population is getting vaccinated, that doesn’t mean it’s safe to ease up on business restrictions, school closures, masking & density limits.
But I worry that the “fall” & “late 2021” reporting could have the opposite effect by making people feel hopeless. I prefer Biden’s efforts to get people to keep it up until through spring (though “first 100 days after Inauguration” isn’t a timeline most people understand).
At the same time, Fauci minced his words a bit in describing when “most people” will be vaccinated. Based on Saloui’s timeline of doses, it seems like March/April is the *earliest* we’re likely to *start* offering vax to the general public without underlying conditions.
And even Saloui’s timeline is very ambitious.
Important to remember that most kids & many young adults are unlikely to be vaccinated in 2021, given we’re only just beginning to study it in older teens, the EUA is for adults, & kids/young adults who aren’t essential workers are given very low priority in most allocation plans
So... all of this is to say that there are going to be some tough choices to make in spring/summer about what fall 2021 reopening looks like in schools & universities if most teachers/staff have been offered vax (& some have declined) but most students have not.
Will we keep up mask requirements, density limits & testing regimes for schools in fall 2021? Masks are cheap but may continue to face resistance. Density limits & frequent testing are expensive. Ventilation is still inadequate in many schools.
Even though we “have a vaccine” we still need investments in testing, tracing & supported isolation (which will be critical to “stamp out the embers” this summer & prevent a fall 2021 resurgence) & workplace safety (including paid sick leave & improved ventilation systems)
These investments will also help us *prevent* outbreaks of other novel pathogens from becoming the next pandemic.
Current vaccine plans probably won’t achieve sustainable suppression before the public’s will to alter daily life fully evaporates. We can plead with people to live with restrictions for another year. Or we can make public & institutional investments so they won’t have to.
