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1. Sweden, the "model" country taken by so many. Time for an update on the situation including the terrible numbers and ICU-related news.
A thread
A thread
2. First numbers. Usually I only compare to neighbouring countries when I do this. Reminder: since demographics, social systems and behaviours, and health systems etc... are so different between the nordics and the rest of the world, comparisons between nordics make sense.
3. And nordic countries because of their low density of population, great healthcare system and already long existing social distancing rules were bound to do good during a pandemic.
4. And they all did, except Sweden which now has numbers comparable to countries with much worst starting conditions for a pandemic. Let's see on the number of cases.
Analysis here: Sweden is almost as bad as the US for cases/Million
Analysis here: Sweden is almost as bad as the US for cases/Million
5. And way worse than all other European countries considered. By far! And now I know most people could say that it's because we test more in Sweden: false. Testing is saturated so the number are likely higher even and this is disproved by the positivity rate.
6. The positivity rate is higher than in the US even, while testing capacity is already at the maximum in Sweden.
In earlier threads 8 weeks ago I said that the 2nd wave was coming with a delay to nordic countries, it's clearly visible now.
In earlier threads 8 weeks ago I said that the 2nd wave was coming with a delay to nordic countries, it's clearly visible now.
7. The 2nd wave started in France and other countries basically beginning of September. In Sweden and the nordic, mid-October.
8. Now the deaths... Denmark which had a lot of cases/millions is still with the other nordics for deaths, so they managed it well... but not Sweden which is now higher than most European countries. And probably higher than the US even...
9. Because we have to consider the delay in the reporting of deaths in Sweden. It takes now more than 10 days for the reporting of deaths to be reliable, so any figure you see that is less than 10 days old is not reliable.
10. For more info on the delay in the report of deaths, see the amazing website from @adamaltmejd https://adamaltmejd.se/covid/
11. Now about the ICU beds situation that some people enquire about... bad news: first time since the beginning of the pandemic that the situation is that dramatic. Mainly in Stockholm, ICU beds saturated. Other places doing better. https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4833
12. And what is worse is that health workers now feel the pressure of the pandemic and start quitting, therefore making the situation even worse. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-12/swedish-covid-workers-are-quitting-leaving-icus-short-staffed
13. As a reminder, Anders Tegnell still does not support wearing a mask in public... in fact the only difference between Sweden and the other nordics that did much better during the pandemic is
14. that Sweden listened to the intuitions of Tegnell while the other nordics listened to scientific reasoning... and we see today clearly what is the right strategy... The Swedish model is nothing but a cautionary tale, stop daydreaming about it!
Poke @dtzb
