Here is a quick status update on foreign powers and political talks as #Libya passes the 50-day mark in the 90-day deadline to remove all foreign #mercenaries from Libyan territory. #UAE #Russia #Turkey

The agreement was reached by the joint 5+5 military committee (JMC) in Geneva on October 23 2020. As part of a 12 point plan to demilitarise #Sirte. Both sides agreed to remove foreign forces in #Libya.

For context, last month #UN envoy to Libya during the #LPDF in #Tunis claimed that there were 20,000 foreign mercenaries in #Libya. “This is a serious crisis and a shocking violation of Libyan sovereignty.”

Here are the key players: #Russia & #UAE both sent Sudanese, Russian & Syrian mercenaries to #Libya in support of #LAAF. Neither country has publicly acknowledged this despite #UN, media & open source reports.

Recent claims that #UAE is funding Wagner group in #Libya further complicates matters. Who decides whether Wagner should withdraw? #Russia or the #UAE or both? https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/30/pentagon-trump-russia-libya-uae/

According to the #UN there are at least 10 foreign bases fully or partially occupied by foreign forces. Here is a map by @n_cherk showing the #UAE #Russia #France #Egypt’s presence in 7 bases against #Turkey & #Italy who have had a presence in 3.

Finally, on reliability of figures & actual presence today on the ground? Who controls these bases today, how many forces have been deployed? How can the JMC physically oversee the departure of foreign forces on either side & guarantee this in good faith?

#Turkey& #GNA agreed in Nov 2019 to send Syrian mercenaries to Libya however their figures are unknown. Recently, Turkey secured domestic parliamentary approval to extend troop deployment in #Libya for 18 months. Do their forces leave the battlefield in Sirte but not the country?

If #Turkey’s public motion to extend the presence of foreign military forces is enforced in #Libya, it would be a clear breach of the joint military committee’s 12 point agreement on the removal of foreign troops and mercenaries.

Without an independent body overseeing the departure of #Turkey, the #UAE & #Russia’s forces in #Libya, their continued presence adds immeasurable stress to the fragile #UN brokered talks and reflects their view of the political process.

The presence of mercenaries can give foreign actors the power to influence #Libya political talks & shape their outcome. More on this in Dr @andreas_krieg's #shortread for Sadeq Institute last month: https://www.sadeqinstitute.org/s/Ninety-two-days-How-Mercenaries-Shape-Libyas-Conflict-and-its-Resolution.pdf