If you send goods across a non porous border you need
-lots of paperwork. Filling it in triggers delays.
-trained customs staff. We're short by 50k. That'll cause delays.
- IT systems. Several haven't launched yet. More delays.

This is why there'll be shortages @jbhearn. /1 https://twitter.com/jbhearn/status/1338431730055835652

If you're exporting to EU, in the case of food products (dead or alive) you also need an official veterinarian (that's a thing) working with a certification support officer to deal with the sanitary and phytosanitory checks to generate a European Health Certificate /2

That EHC is then submitted at a border control post and also on the EU import control system. Only then can the truck travel into the EU. /3

Thing is, the importer in the EU will have to input *LOTS* of information into the EU's trade control and expert system (not the same as as the EU import control system) because it's arriving from outside the EU. /4

Alternatively the EU importer can skip all of the admin, fees and taxes triggered by importing from the UK by instead sourcing from a EU based company. That is why brexit will be an economic calamity for the UK; the operational reality is going to trump the economic theory. /5

The ERG would have "won" if they'd either agreed to stay in the customs union or else spent the four years building up the IT, buildings and workforce needed to make customs happen. /6

They frittered away the time with procrastinatiob in a now obvious intention to deliberately aim for no deal but they haven't done their homework on the very unsexy world of customs and logistics. In a few weeks imports and exports will collapse and so will our economy. /7

This will cause civil unrest as companies collapse, manufacturing lines grind to a halt and some food stuffs and medicines become scarce. The only way back is an emergency general election and to politely ask the EU if we can rejoin the customs union immediately. /8

That means once again being held to all the laws the EU wants you to meet for access to the EU market. Similar laws exist for access to other free trade agreements like NAFTA. It's like joining a leisure centre and agreeing to not poo in the pool or swim in a mankini. /9

But this is the reality in a globalised economy. Either we play by the EU rules or we both play with the bloody irritating and tedious admin laden WTO rules. The ERG decided to not go for a trade deal and the results are going to be horrendous. /10

Everyone in the UK is about to get an unpleasant lesson in supply chain management with a major in customs and trade. This won't be the fault of the supply chain industry. We've been screaming for decisions and help from the government for four years and they did nothing. /fin

Addendum for any other UK residents, if you want to stockpile it's not too late, see here for two links as to what to go and buy. https://twitter.com/Fwoggie/status/1336199711204761600?s=19