So record redundancies will take headlines from today's jobs figs. Now well above last crisis (yellow line). This is all still fallout from summer redundancy notices (blue) and will start falling back.
On other indicators, today's figs show signs of recovery thru Oct. Thread...
Below shows employment and unemployment. Single month figs (yellow) show employment has been flat for three months. Headline fall is cos it was much higher in summer.
Unemployment is rising mainly cos 'inactivity' is down as ppl look for work.
And numbers 'away' from a job is now down by 5.2 million from peak in late April. This has levelled off in October (worrying - as pre second lockdown), but large majority of that 5.2m went back to their old jobs. Rise in redundancies/ fall in employment a small fraction of this.
In fact here's the change in employment, unemp and inact on this month's figures, next to the ones published last month. Employment fall virtually unchanged.
Spot the difference in the yellow and grey bars...
In fact here's the change in employment, unemp and inact on this month's figures, next to the ones published last month. Employment fall virtually unchanged.Spot the difference in the yellow and grey bars...
In fact here's the change in employment, unemp and inact on this month's figures, next to the ones published last month. Employment fall virtually unchanged.Spot the difference in the yellow and grey bars...
Wow this is probably most interesting story in today's figures. Quarterly changes in employment by gender - for men down by 150k, x all empl types. For women, empl overall is flat - but huge rise (165k) in full time employees, offsetting falls in s/e and p/t work.
Looking at changes by age, three fifths of fall in employment in last quarter has been young people - still bearing brunt. Driven again by 16-17s, down by one sixth during crisis.
Worrying signs for 50-64s, but recovery in empl for very oldest (after big falls earlier in yr).
On young ppl, those not in full-time ed or empl has inched back above 1m (where it was in lockdown). Below shows for 16-17s, rises in education are offsetting falls in employment.
So slight rise in 'NEET' is so far among 18-24s (plus big falls in those working while studying).
Last few graphs! Some Nov data out today, i.e. 2nd lockdown.
PAYE data below shows big flows out of employee work (700k, highest since April)...
But inflows/hiring very high too. 670k is back to pre-crisis levels (and higher than Nov 19).
So signs of disruption but also recovery.
November vacancy data out now too, which bodes slightly less well. Slight dip in single month November, following sharp rise in Oct. May well reflect softening with lockdown 2. Note this is stocks data though, really need to know the flows of new job adverts...
And Universal Credit data for Nov has just been released. Signs of a slight increase in new claims in November/ 2nd lockdown - up 14% on October, and 25% on a year prior. But wow nowhere close to the impacts of first lockdown...
So lockdown 2 may have had fairly muted impact.
No more graphs today, briefing note to follow shortly.
In summary, jobs figs are ok. Labour market is weak, redunds driven by fallout from first lockdown, signs of recovery in Sep/ Oct. Early signs lockdown 2 has had effect, but maybe not huge.
Things could be a lot worse. But...
With another lockdown likely in new year and huge economic uncertainty, we really need a trade deal and more to support employment growth in new year.
Focus needs to be on supporting those out of work to get into work, including those most disadvantaged pre-pandemic.
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