New From @CAPolicyLab:
Within 2 weeks, over 1 million Californians are projected to lose UI benefits.
This includes 859k individuals currently on PUA + another 208k receiving regular UI benefits.

We analyze the recent proposal to #ExtendUI

https://www.capolicylab.org/publications/impact-of-extending-unemployment-insurance-benefits-in-california/
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This number will rise to 1.6m by April.
These people will be totally without benefits, despite remaining unemployed.
As @p_ganong shows, this means less spending on things like groceries & medical care. Many have children, who will also be affected.
https://twitter.com/p_ganong/status/1338468408027967495?s=20

These exhaustions, (and the suffering and hunger that go along with them) are a policy choice.

The Bipartisan proposal to extend PUA + PEUC by 16 weeks would reduce the number of exhaustions occurring before the end of the program by 95%.
The difference is massive.

We've also run separate exhaustion projections separately for each County in the State.

Just in Los Angeles County, almost 320 thousand workers will lose benefits in the next 2 weeks.

In Orange County, 76,000.
Another 76,000 in San Diego.

Similarly, we take a look at which industries the regular UI claimants set to exhaust by the end of the year are coming from.
Unsurprisingly, Accommodation and Food Services Lead the way. The Administrative Support & Retail Trade industries follow closely behind.

We describe why this proposal is effective at preventing exhaustions: it increases both the program end dates AND the max. benefit durations for each each program.

Our Appendix illustrates how how these constraints affect different claimants, and why a good policy extends both

This policy is far from perfect- ideally, a bill would've passed in the Spring, and tied relief to labor market indicators & not the whims of Congress. By now, even if Congress wants to "save Christmas", it may be too late.

@EvermoreMichele explains: https://twitter.com/EvermoreMichele/status/1337808031715831809?s=20

While imperfect, my coauthor @TillvonWachter notes that, "The urgency of passing a relief bill quickly cannot be understated. Extending the PUA and PEUC programs would help people to buy groceries and pay their rent while also buying time for the labor market to recover."

The report goes on to discuss fiscal effects the proposal would have on the California economy. We estimate that if these UI extensions were passed, and were coupled with a 16 week, $300 supplement, the policy would provide nearly $10bn in direct payments to the unemployed.

Since these payments go directly to the long-term unemployed, (who are especially likely to spend the money), the benefits would flow over to small businesses and the wider economy. We estimate the fiscal stimulus from the policy would indirectly create nearly 45,000 jobs.

Read the full report here:
https://www.capolicylab.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Impact-of-Extending-UI-Benefits-in-California.pdf

If you like this analysis, give a follow to @CAPolicyLab, along with my brilliant coauthors @alexbellecon + @TillvonWachter. (Geoff Schnorr is too cool Twitter)
And HUGE thanks to @CA_EDD for making this research possible.

cc’ing the #UI crew + #EconTwitter

@TheStalwart @EricMorath @sechaney @paulgp @kevinrinz @ElizaForsythe @keds_economist @ernietedeschi @jc_econ @Jstein_WaPo @arindube @bencasselman @ENPancotti @noahpinion @ryanlcooper @EricMorath @sechaney @JustinWolfers @BetseyStevenson

+ few other policy/econ people who may be interested:
@modeledBehavior @margotroosevelt @josheidelson
@jimtankersley @katedavidson @missRyley @sdonnan @JordanChariton @hshierholz @JHWeissmann
@dylanmatt @mattyglesias @jbarro @neil_irwin @ezraklein @dylanmatt