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A lot to digest in this latest piece by @ChuBailiang, but one striking thing is how consistently Chinese nationalists reduce a competition over political systems to a simple dichotomy: the US as stand-in for “democracy”, and China as autocracy. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/14/world/asia/china-nationalists-covid.html
There’s a real blind spot here. It’s as if the only country that really matters for this argument is the US.
Democratic South Korea, New Zealand, and (gasp) Taiwan have handled the pandemic threat well without draconian city-wide lockdowns and information blackouts.
Democratic South Korea, New Zealand, and (gasp) Taiwan have handled the pandemic threat well without draconian city-wide lockdowns and information blackouts.
More broadly, if you think China’s rapid build-out of infrastructure, esp high speed rail, which US is terrible at, indicates superiority of its political system...then democratic Japan, with more HSR per capita than any other country, should be a superpower!
Democratic Germany is a manufacturing powerhouse.
Democratic Sweden, Norway, & Denmark have generous social safety nets.
Democratic Australia’s economy grew for 25 years straight w/o a recession.
Democratic Sweden, Norway, & Denmark have generous social safety nets.
Democratic Australia’s economy grew for 25 years straight w/o a recession.
Democracy is compatible with all the outcomes that Chinese leaders say their system produces better than the US.
Which indicates this comparison isn’t really about an honest assessment of their own regime’s strengths and weaknesses.
Which indicates this comparison isn’t really about an honest assessment of their own regime’s strengths and weaknesses.
It’s instead a propaganda campaign, and at least some CCP elites are starting to believe their own propaganda.
Which suggests they are not going to make needed course corrections anytime soon.
Which suggests they are not going to make needed course corrections anytime soon.
Anyway, here’s a review piece I wrote a while back critiquing the apparent superiority and successes of “The China Model,” which elaborates on some of these points:
http://www.tfd.org.tw/export/sites/tfd/files/publication/journal/177-201-The-China-Model.pdf
http://www.tfd.org.tw/export/sites/tfd/files/publication/journal/177-201-The-China-Model.pdf
I’m bearish on China’s future for several reasons, but the big two are:
1. Demographics. China is basically going to turn Japanese in a few years, with outright population decline by ~2030:
1. Demographics. China is basically going to turn Japanese in a few years, with outright population decline by ~2030:
2. Productivity. Total factor productivity growth has been very slow since 2009 at ~2%/yr (some estimates are even negative).
A falling population with small increases in productivity is a recipe for economic stagnation: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/china-low-productivity-superpower
A falling population with small increases in productivity is a recipe for economic stagnation: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/china-low-productivity-superpower
Part of this low productivity is due to re-elevation of SOEs over private firms in the Xi era, as Nick Lardy documents: https://www.piie.com/bookstore/state-strikes-back-end-economic-reform-china
Part is due to China’s huge undereducated rural population, which is still neglected, as Scott Rozelle documents here: https://www.bloomsbury.com/au/chinas-invisible-crisis-9781786075529/
And part is due to rising authoritarianism within the PRC system under Xi, who is "cannibalizing institutional norms and practices," as @CarlMinzner describes: https://global.oup.com/academic/product/end-of-an-era-9780190672089?cc=us&lang=en&
See also @LizEconomy's excellent book on how Xi has expanded the CCP's role in everyday life and reimposed greater controls on exchange of ideas and capital with outside world -- reversing the Deng-era reforms: https://www.cfr.org/book/third-revolution
For what this means about the balance of power between the US and China in coming decades, here's Michael Beckley's prediction: https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9781501724787/unrivaled/
And for what it means for China and its impact in the world, here's one provocative vision: https://www.aei.org/research-products/book/the-china-nightmare-the-grand-ambitions-of-a-decaying-state/
