This is very, very good.

Read the three pieces. I'm just including a few key quotes in this thread.

From Part 1:

"Nothing in history prepared either the Republic of #India or the People’s Republic of #China, founded within a year of each other, to deal with the other."

1/7 https://twitter.com/fravel/status/1338563736408367106

From Part 2 (2020 crisis):

"Because #India’s initial response was non-strategic, we were forced to cede ground, and now face a fait accompli. Both #deterrence and strategy had failed...

2/7

... By occupying territory on the Indian side, #China put the onus of escalation on India if it wishes to restore the status quo."

3/7

From Part 3:

" #India- #China relations have been reset to a new normal. There is no going back to what they were, to the surface calm that prevailed before 2020 or the coexistence before 2012."

4/7

"The #China crisis increases Indian willingness to work in the Indo-Pacific with countries that share #India’s concerns about freedom of navigation and security in this extended body of water that has been increasingly militarised...

5/7

... At the same time, given the stakes that each of these countries has in its ties with #China, this informal coalition is probably more a hedging rather than a balancing exercise for its members."

6/7

"Asia’s future is not necessarily either #China-centric nor US-led, but fragmented and disorderly, with Asian states hedging against all possibilities and working with both China and the US where it suits them."

7/7