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A thought or two on the vaccine roll out.
One piece of very good news is that we don’t have to vaccinate that many people before the deaths start coming down. As @harrytlambert suggests, vaccinate 75+s (9% of the population) & fatalities cut by 71%. /1 https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2020/12/how-covid-19-vaccines-could-rapidly-reduce-uk-s-death-rate
One piece of very good news is that we don’t have to vaccinate that many people before the deaths start coming down. As @harrytlambert suggests, vaccinate 75+s (9% of the population) & fatalities cut by 71%. /1 https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2020/12/how-covid-19-vaccines-could-rapidly-reduce-uk-s-death-rate
We might get there quite quickly & lots will argue that we should lift all the restrictions asap. But the vaccine won’t have 100% efficacy – so some of the vaccinated may still die - & although the IFR will be low for the rest, if many get it a fair few will die. /2
Could be a tough dilemma by early spring. The best of both worlds would be to get the vaccine out to the general population very quickly. Assuming the Oxford vaccine gets the OK, we should have to doses but still a huge logistical task to get lots of people injected. /3
The NHS will be under great pressure in early 2021, even without trying to run a mass vaccination campaign. But there’s another part of the state that could do much of the hard work – with the infrastructure already in place. /4
On a regular basis, we give people the opportunity to turn up at a local venue to perform a relatively simple task. Millions do it over 15 hours across the country without much of a problem. They’re called elections & run by local authorities. /5
Each vaccination station would need someone medically trained to stick in the needle (including some retirees?) but that person could be supported by the people who regularly work in polling stations who could check identity, mark off a list, provide instructions etc. /6
The equivalent of polling cards could be distributed, providing information (‘wear a short sleeved top’) & link to a simple online booking system. Run the event for 3 days in mid-February, repeat for the 2nd dose in mid-March. /7
It wouldn’t get everyone vaccinated but it might be a way of getting lots done. A real national moment, making it a social norm to get the jab, relieving pressure on the NHS, making use of tried & tested infrastructure plus a process familiar to the public. /8
Big challenges in doing this but it will be important to get the vaccine out quickly. We don't need to reinvent the wheel, get local authorities to help by using the model that works in elections. /END
