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I keep hearing the news say we need 70% or 80% vaccination coverage to return to normal and that's just blowing my mind. We clearly do not need that. Focusing on high-risk people and essential workers, plus acquired immunity we have thus far, can cut that a ton.
Folks. If we've got the 10% most careless people already immune via acquired immunity, and we've got the 20% highest-risk vaccinated, and the 10-20% highest-contact too... we can go back to normal.
We should OF COURSE continue trying to vaccinate even more people. The goal should be to eradicate COVID completely from this planet. That's possible and should be done.
But it's absurd to be saying that we're gonna need significant NPIs even once we've got high risk and high-contact people vaccinated. That's clearly wrong. The benefits will not outweigh the costs.
Also I just heard somebody on the news say "President Trump should take the vaccine on national TV."
No.
He should not.
He's already immune.
No.
He should not.
He's already immune.
If you got COVID, you should be last in line for a vaccine, because odds are you don't need it!
And when people say the vaccine doesn't prevent transmission.
Maybe true. But it almost certainly REDUCES transmission since you aren't coughing and weezing everywhere.
Maybe true. But it almost certainly REDUCES transmission since you aren't coughing and weezing everywhere.
And if it doesn't reduce transmission.... so what? We vaccinate everybody, and then when we get a more traditional vaccine that can deal with transmission we go for round 2.
But if you're vaccinating all the people most likely to die, the social costs of spread are very low and continuing NPIs are not justified. Yes, people should still have to wear masks. You should test all international travelers at the border.
Seriously if we get to ~no excess death and have most high risk people vaccinated and there are still significant NPIs y'all the tenor and tone of this account is re: COVID is gonna take a massive turn.
When excess deaths fall to zero with a vaccine available, NPIs should end besides mask-wearing and border-testing. https://twitter.com/shireralec62/status/1338534193169641475
There's literally no reason to have NPIs if you have a vaccine and don't have excess deaths.
My expectation is with good targeting of vaccines, current NPIs, and the changing of the seasons, we're gonna have near-zero excess deaths by May at the *latest*, March if we beat vaccine expectations.
What is even the point of NPIs if there are few or no excess deaths?
Just for funzies?
Just for funzies?
These people saying, "well have to wait until early summer for a reopening"
what
why
what on earth
are you high?
what
why
what on earth
are you high?
UNTIL THE SUN WITH ITS FAVOR RISES TO THE SOLSTICE, CHILDREN CANNOT BE IN SCHOOL*
*also that's summer break so they won't be anyways
*also that's summer break so they won't be anyways
My actual suspicion is schools really don't want to have to deal with returning to physical presence so they're just writing off the spring, and then summer too.
