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I would bet a pint* that the new variant of SARS-CoV-2 that Hancock, the UK Health Minister, just blamed for the rise in cases in the south of England, is not materially more spready than existing variants, and the rise is due to the virus acting pretty much as it always has.
* I am definitely not a betting person, & when I do I much prefer to bet as insurance rather than doubling-down like this. So the stakes here are strictly limited to a single pint of beer. Bet not to be settled until both parties agree it is safe & sensible to do so in person.
It is quite natural and common for people to think that they've found a new, more infectious variant. That is possible - and I could be wrong in my guess! - but most of the time it's a mistake. See e.g. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19818-2 and https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55011790
And, so far as I can see from the public data, there is no mystery about the recent rise in cases in the south of England that would need explaining by a new, more infectious variant. It's the virus doing what it's done all along.
Some actual experts who are also skeptical that the new variant has any meaningful import:
https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1338524160054595584 https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1338530243783487488
https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1338524160054595584 https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1338530243783487488
Some background on the new variant. Key message: "The vast majority of the mutations observed in SARS-CoV-2 have no apparent effect on the virus and only a very small minority are likely to be important and change the virus in any appreciable way" https://www.cogconsortium.uk/news_item/update-on-new-sars-cov-2-variant-and-how-cog-uk-tracks-emerging-mutations/
This tracking effort is seriously impressive, btw. Our genetic capability is amazing and the people who are doing it are awesome.
The overnight media digest on the 'new variant' story. Pleasantly surprised to see how online commenters are reacting. https://twitter.com/stokel/status/1338756232946065408
Roundup of many informed, expert opinions on the new variant. https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-the-new-variant-of-sars-cov-2/ My summary of it: entirely expected, worth tracking in case it's important, but it probably isn't.
