Cowen is out this am with a great 2021 preview on Amazon (Title: Best Ideas for 2021: Amazon to Deliver Strong rev + big margin expansion in 21). Too in-depth to cover everything, but here's my favorite two points (mini-thread time!)

Here's a chart that shows Amazon's logistics footprint y/y growth. 2019->2020 is a staggering 61% increase. Until you see a 1m sq-ft FC, it's hard to mentally grok this, but Amazon already had a huge lead on logistics vs. any other retailer (Walmart has like 10-20 FCs).

These are permanent assets, not temp capacity. Amazon used covid to extend their lead an additional 61%. Ok, let's talk GMV - Cowen is one of only 2-3 firms that estimates GMV (Amazon doesn't report it).

They have 2021 at ~$500b and then $1T by 2026. Let that sink in...

Their model is 12% CAGR between 21-26 to get there. Amazon hasn't grown that slow since I think 08/09?, so this feels conservative to me. 20% gets you there in 2024-ish.