Not a huge amount to say on UK/EU future relationship talks. Small signs of progress, but still tricky details to be sorted. Instead a thread on the NI agreement reached last week, on which there has been surprisingly little discussion. A good outcome given the circumstances 1/

The agreement on implementing NI Protocol looks better for the UK than I expected in many ways. Of course, there are still lots of additional challenges for business, but it could have been a lot worse. 2/

First on at risk tariffs. The most important point here is that the UK Trader Scheme will not only remove tariffs if no FTA, but essentially remove rules of origin requirements for GB to NI traders in the scheme even with an FTA. 3/

This is a big plus in terms of simplifying the process for trading GB to NI under the Protocol & means it will feel materially different to GB/EU border from customs perspective (combined with other easements). 4/

I understand the qualifying process for the UK Trader Scheme will be pretty light touch. I have heard a 14 question questionnaire, which compared to earlier drafts/proposals sounds relatively easy to comply with. 5/

Second, the phase in on certification around agrifood is welcome & helpful, although probably less than the industry was hoping for. But this was always a tricky area given lack of flex in EU rules around agrifood checks. 6/

But the proportion of checks sound promising. "Physical checks on retail packs and supermarket goods can be reduced to zero, or close to zero, on a risk assessed basis". Given they were potentially going to be 50%+, this will help ease any disruption. 7/

Qualifying for this remains a bit opaque. But I don't think this is a bad thing. It is also a wider point. While late in the day, keeping things broad is still positive for UK, because drilling into detail is more likely to end up in a less positive place from UK perspective 8/

Now we have an agreement in this area, I think businesses should be making the case to be included, indeed assume their own inclusion. This will be reviewed over time, but given pragmatic approach to enforcement, there is no harm starting with most optimistic interpretation 9/

UK also succeeded in removing need for export or exit declarations on trade NI to GB (save for a few minor exceptions). As well as securing a sensible interpretation of the state aid reach back. Though in the end this will only be known when it is tested in court I suspect. 10/

All in all, a lot of credit to @michaelgove & @MarosSefcovic & their teams for landing this outcome in tricky circumstances. The fact it was a good enough outcome for both sides to agree even absent a final FTA is a strong endorsement. 11/

This approach holds even if no future relationship agreed. Makes such a scenario both less likely but also less acrimonious. But must be realistic that in such a scenario differences in GB/NI border compared to GB/EU border will mean the arrangement comes under strain 12/ ENDS