West Bengal 2021 forecast
TMC 181 (44%)
BJP 100 (38%)
Congress 10 (6%)
CPM+ 0 (4%)
Others 3 (8%)
BJP would surge massively by 33X but won't be able to form govt.
Read detailed past threads on West Bengal here.
1. https://twitter.com/Suyash75/status/1128593413849456641
2. https://twitter.com/Suyash75/status/1131921724746846208

Despite sharing 2 tweet links, people are being abusive that I didn't predict a BJP win. Please see the threads, especially the 2nd one for ground situation. For BJP to win, they need to do a LOT of things, 1st being a free and fair elections. Ofcourse they may still win.

Usually I don't predict local polls.
But just a snapshot from a few days back. Add to it read the 1st tweet link shared above and the entire thread of West Bengal 2019. Everything was almost 100% accurate.
Whether it is local polls or US polls, I have identified trends correctly.

It won't impact my forecast in any manner as I already accounted for that factor.
What may cause change is
1. Alliance between Left TMC and Congress
2. Attempt by BJP to hold free, fair and terror free elections using whatever central forces they can. https://twitter.com/ankitkhemka7/status/1338831804585799680

My assessment for Assam 2021 Assembly elections.
Congress is down but not out yet, but would be out of power yet again. BJP may get majority on its own.
AIUDF 10 (13%)
Congress 30 (26%)
UPA - 40
BJP 63 (30%)
AGP 10 (8%)
BPF 5 (3%)
NDA Others 4 (3%)
NDA 82
Others 4 (17%)

Kerala 2021 Assembly elections outlook.
CPM 52
CPI 16
KCM 5
LDF others 12
LDF - 85 (38.2%)
Congress 24
IUML 25
UDF Others 4
UDF - 53 (34.6%)
BJP 1 (15.7%)
Others 1 (11.5%)
Congress may cede LOP to Muslim League.
BJP's growth seems to have reached a point of stagnation in Kerala

For the last few elections (National, Assembly, Local Bodies) BJP seems to be getting 12-15% votes and it has reached a point of stagnation. It targeted Hindu votes of UDF and LDF with a prize on latter but all it could get was Hindu votes of UDF. The Hindu votes of LDF is tough.

For a further level of growth BJP is baking the wrong tree by targeting Hindu votes of LDF in an attempt to weaken it. Clearly it is not working, fow now. It needs to look for other vote blocks now if it has to grow. It could be Christians or even Muslims. If it gets Christians..

.. Congress will be finished. Given the state, it is much easier for the BJP to electorally wreck Congress than it is to wreck LDF. It gets UDF Hindu and Christian blocks. Muslims stay with IUML and LDF Hindus stay with LDF. It ensues a proper 3 cornered fight, far cry from now

Once this happens, BJP can get bulk of LDF votes as it starts looking winnable and will appear less like a pariah. So except for communist minded Hindus, most Hindus of LDF will come to BJP, finishing LDF along with Congress. The favourable demographics make it a BJP-IUML state

I understand but they are definitely more likely to vote BJP than Communist Hindus are. BJP is chasing the wrong goose. If they are to grow in Kerala, they need to choose 1 of these blocks else they will forever remain at 15%. Communist Hindus won't come https://twitter.com/desitechy/status/1339968531685724162

Tamil Nadu 2021 Assembly elections outlook.
DMK 122
CPM 5
CPI 6
Congress 25
UPA others 8
UPA - 166 (46%)
AIADMK 55
PMK 5
DMDK 2
BJP 1
NDA Others 4
NDA - 67 (38.6%)
Others 1 (15.4%)

West Bengal Elections in nutshell.
It is mahaul vs Brute ground force.
Mahaul is with BJP, Ground force with TMC.
Whichever factor prevails will lead to the winner. At this point TMC has decisive edge due to brute ground strength.
If something changes I will revise my predictions

In 2014 LS, BJP led by 176 votes in this seat
In 2019 LS, BJP trailed by 3193 votes in this seat
Mahaul is totally against Banerjee Aunty but I doubt she will lose her own seat
It is more difficult to defeat her than it was to defeat Rahul Gandhi in Amethi https://twitter.com/priyank30543806/status/1342704600118251520