THREAD

What are the underlying factors driving Kenya’s invitation of Muse Bihi, Pres of SL, viewed by many as naked interference in Somalia’s internal affairs, particularly at a time tensions bw Mog & NBI are running high and int'l calls for de-escalation are getting lauder?

The most often cited reason by newspapers and commentators over Muse Bihi’s visit to Kenya was Kenya’s official account, which is “the meeting will focus on strengthening the trade ties and security between Kenya and Somaliland.”

This statement was interpreted as another desperate attempt by Kenya to salvage her Mira export industry, which was badly affected by Somalia’s ban on Khat importations over concerns around COVID contaminations.

While the Mira traders have been badly affected by Somalia’s ban and are desperate to have an alternative market for their exports, however, the primary reason driving Kenya’s recent move is not only that.

Kenya’s foreign policy objective from this invitation is to bring Muse Bihi on board and persuade him to join in her subversive activities against FGS, aimed to dislodge President Farmaajo from office at the looming election.

Kenya wants from Muse Bihi to openly express his voice and join in with Deni and Madoobe’s opposition against FGS so as to tamper the legitimacy and the integrity of next elections.

In addition, Kenya wants Muse Bihi to play an active role in the selection process of SL MPs to ensure that pro-N&N SL MPs are excluded from the next Parliament as MPs votes are the ones deciding the outcome of the election.

What benefit will Muse Bihi gain if he does Kenya's bidding?

In any event and under international law, Kenya is fully aware that it cannot recognise Somaliland.

But Kenya is offering to Bihi a false hope, which is – if he helps Kenya with dislodging President Farmaajo from office & help her install an administration, which is more or less compliant to NBI, it will reciprocate & will help him obtain a divorce certificate from Mogadishu.

It is also worth to note that Kenya is furious about Somalia's recent moves in international arenas, which upped the ante...

Not only has FGS sent Kenya’s Ambassador back to NBI, it has also refused the renewal of mandate & funding to Contact Group on the Piracy Off the Coast of Somalia (CGPCS) in which Kenya was elected to chair for 2 years on Jan 2020.