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If there is one aspect of negotiation tactics people think they understand, it's the idea that forcing the timetable increases the chances of an agreement
The tick-tock, tick-tock of the clock forces the sides together
In Brexit it's not so simple
The tick-tock, tick-tock of the clock forces the sides together
In Brexit it's not so simple
If the topic of negotiation is between two parties, and is binary in nature, a deadline does work
Take for example two football clubs that might (or might not) transfer a player on transfer deadline day - that's why you get a slew of deals at 5 minutes to midnight
Take for example two football clubs that might (or might not) transfer a player on transfer deadline day - that's why you get a slew of deals at 5 minutes to midnight
The problem is that Brexit - in this phase - is only partially like that
Yes, there is a hard deadline - if there is nothing *ratified* by 31 December, there will be No Deal
Ireland's Taoiseach Martin says publicly that this is the deadline: https://twitter.com/RTENewsPaulC/status/1338399228847120384
Yes, there is a hard deadline - if there is nothing *ratified* by 31 December, there will be No Deal
Ireland's Taoiseach Martin says publicly that this is the deadline: https://twitter.com/RTENewsPaulC/status/1338399228847120384
But that is the deadline for the *ratification* of a Deal (or provisional ratification - let's set that to the side for a moment)
The problem then is that an agreement - that could *then* be ratified - is going to be needed earlier
But how much earlier?
The problem then is that an agreement - that could *then* be ratified - is going to be needed earlier
But how much earlier?
Discontent is rising in the European Parliament, fearful they will be bounced into rubber stamping something without adequate scrutiny
What is the EP's deadline? Or what's the EP's price for agreeing to a tighter deadline? That's a negotiation in itself https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1338387359113637889
What is the EP's deadline? Or what's the EP's price for agreeing to a tighter deadline? That's a negotiation in itself https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1338387359113637889
What about UK side?
Here the assumption is that primary legislation would be needed to implement a Deal in the UK. You can pass all that in a day if you need to, but should you?
The likes of Iain Duncan Smith cried they were hoodwinked last time
It's a negotiation too
Here the assumption is that primary legislation would be needed to implement a Deal in the UK. You can pass all that in a day if you need to, but should you?
The likes of Iain Duncan Smith cried they were hoodwinked last time
It's a negotiation too
Then there are the practical implications...
The closer you get to the 31 December ratification deadline, but there is no agreement, so the practical short term costs rise - as explained very well in this thread: https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1338106674700283904
The closer you get to the 31 December ratification deadline, but there is no agreement, so the practical short term costs rise - as explained very well in this thread: https://twitter.com/AnnaJerzewska/status/1338106674700283904
So you end up with a multiple level game - a negotiation with sub-negotiations
In one way the political cost *rises* the longer you wait - the European Parliament can extract more concessions. And there is a *practical* cost to waiting too
In one way the political cost *rises* the longer you wait - the European Parliament can extract more concessions. And there is a *practical* cost to waiting too
Sure, the ticking clock might focus minds in the Brexit talks. But it is not the only impact. This is Brexit after all, whether nothing is simple
/ends
/ends
