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Weekly update of charts on the age-related stats for Covid in Ireland in this thread. Links at the end to download the Excel or full charts PDF.
Weekly update of charts on the age-related stats for Covid in Ireland in this thread. Links at the end to download the Excel or full charts PDF.
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First off, an overview of where we are.
No massive escalation of cases since the Xmas relaxations started, but rather a slight increase.
First off, an overview of where we are.
No massive escalation of cases since the Xmas relaxations started, but rather a slight increase.
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Age breakdown of cases for the latest day that data is available for below.
Age breakdown of cases for the latest day that data is available for below.
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The % of the overall cases in under 14 age bracket continues to rise. It has been rising since July really, with a reduction only when the 15-25 demographic cases were very high.
The % of the overall cases in under 14 age bracket continues to rise. It has been rising since July really, with a reduction only when the 15-25 demographic cases were very high.
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And both under 14s and over 65s are the two groups that have had consistent growth since July. This concerns me. While it is terrible to see cases in over 65s rising, the rise in under 14s might be a bigger threat.
And both under 14s and over 65s are the two groups that have had consistent growth since July. This concerns me. While it is terrible to see cases in over 65s rising, the rise in under 14s might be a bigger threat.
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This is because of the highly asymptomatic behaviour of the infection in younger people.
We always look at confirmed cases when we look at the case numbers. The actual cases in the population are many times higher.
Because older people are more likely to have more serious..
This is because of the highly asymptomatic behaviour of the infection in younger people.
We always look at confirmed cases when we look at the case numbers. The actual cases in the population are many times higher.
Because older people are more likely to have more serious..
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..illness, the ratio of actual infections to confirmed case numbers for that demographic is lower. For younger people, who tend to be asymptomatic or have mild symptoms, fewer get tested and therefore the multiplier is much greater.
..illness, the ratio of actual infections to confirmed case numbers for that demographic is lower. For younger people, who tend to be asymptomatic or have mild symptoms, fewer get tested and therefore the multiplier is much greater.
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In Ireland right now, not all the close contacts of school children are being tested, dispite ECDC, WHO & CDC guidance. The scientific community also considers all the classmates of an index case as close contacts, but this testing is not being carried out.
In Ireland right now, not all the close contacts of school children are being tested, dispite ECDC, WHO & CDC guidance. The scientific community also considers all the classmates of an index case as close contacts, but this testing is not being carried out.
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On some occasions where the testers have carried out full class testing, many randomly located cases in the class have been identified, because of aerosol spread. This is the exception though, as the policy is to not test these classmates.
On some occasions where the testers have carried out full class testing, many randomly located cases in the class have been identified, because of aerosol spread. This is the exception though, as the policy is to not test these classmates.
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All of this amounts to a situation where asymptomatic virus cases are being ignored.
The priority seems to be to keep the schools open so that the parents can continue to work. This policy is flawed for a number of reasons.
All of this amounts to a situation where asymptomatic virus cases are being ignored.
The priority seems to be to keep the schools open so that the parents can continue to work. This policy is flawed for a number of reasons.
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1. School staff are not being cared for because they (and their families, etc.) are being put at risk.
2. The children and their families are being put at risk.
3. This pandemic cannot be controlled if we ignore a clear source of spread.
1. School staff are not being cared for because they (and their families, etc.) are being put at risk.
2. The children and their families are being put at risk.
3. This pandemic cannot be controlled if we ignore a clear source of spread.
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For me the 3rd point is a very serious one. NPHET are intelligent people. They must be aware of what they are doing. And they continue to do it. Anyone might suspect some sort of agreement between them and the govt on what they can say and what they can't say.
For me the 3rd point is a very serious one. NPHET are intelligent people. They must be aware of what they are doing. And they continue to do it. Anyone might suspect some sort of agreement between them and the govt on what they can say and what they can't say.
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The situation in Mayo last week where a school with 10% confirmed positives had been told they cannot close for Xmas early, dispite the principal saying they can't protect the staff and students, is a damning indictment of the system. Those who are charged with protecting us
The situation in Mayo last week where a school with 10% confirmed positives had been told they cannot close for Xmas early, dispite the principal saying they can't protect the staff and students, is a damning indictment of the system. Those who are charged with protecting us
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are prepared to allow additional cases occur and risk the families of those students. And all this with and hardship (and potential needless loss of life) for economics. Staggering.
are prepared to allow additional cases occur and risk the families of those students. And all this with and hardship (and potential needless loss of life) for economics. Staggering.
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Apologies for the rant. It just beggars belief for me that people's lives are put at risk in this manner.
Apologies for the rant. It just beggars belief for me that people's lives are put at risk in this manner.
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Aaanyway, it's clear from the data that there are a lot of the _confirmed_ cases in the school age demographics. So it can be assumed that the proportion of the overall cases is far higher.
This isn't something that can be ignored, because it increases the risk to the entire
Aaanyway, it's clear from the data that there are a lot of the _confirmed_ cases in the school age demographics. So it can be assumed that the proportion of the overall cases is far higher.
This isn't something that can be ignored, because it increases the risk to the entire
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..population. the proportion in cases in under 14s has shown the highest increase since school return and continues to increase.
..population. the proportion in cases in under 14s has shown the highest increase since school return and continues to increase.
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Apologies again for the rant. I know I usually just present the numbers and I will again, but I'm a bit emotional over what has been happening this week with the schools.
Anyway, PDF of charts:
https://mega.nz/file/jYQWjTbZ#DAZA4mSZccLRq2_VZ8W0LJOkx4GJirB4DxwiFcB_mb4
Excel file:
https://mega.nz/file/XNZm0ZCY#OIJYByCcZ7pipfrKL25ONx6qyobWso7TIRX74h-JYDc
Apologies again for the rant. I know I usually just present the numbers and I will again, but I'm a bit emotional over what has been happening this week with the schools.
Anyway, PDF of charts:
https://mega.nz/file/jYQWjTbZ#DAZA4mSZccLRq2_VZ8W0LJOkx4GJirB4DxwiFcB_mb4
Excel file:
https://mega.nz/file/XNZm0ZCY#OIJYByCcZ7pipfrKL25ONx6qyobWso7TIRX74h-JYDc
