THREAD

THE NEXT PHASE OF TRUMP’S COUP

Round 1 of Trump’s coup was the election, while Round 2 has been his efforts to discredit the election’s outcome and contest it in court.

Now, we are entering Round 3—the much darker and far more dangerous phase of the coup.

1/
Trump’s attack on America is hardly over. But ever since the General Services Administration authorized the release of transition funds—which was probably only a strategic concession by the Trump administration—many Americans have checked out.

2/
But as the recent events in our capitol should demonstrate, the coming weeks may well be the most perilous stretch that our country has ever faced.

Before highlighting what we must expect in this period, let’s review some background, including the current state of the coup.

3/
Having failed in Round 1 to steal the election outright, Trump proceeded to Round 2, launching an unparalleled disinformation campaign against democracy. This offensive has consisted of a synergistic set of legal, political, and media strategies.

4/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1326260536586153984
In evaluating the coup, many people have mistakenly adopted an exclusively legal paradigm of analysis, growing astonishingly confident from Trump’s losses in court.

5/
But the belief that Trump has been playing to win solely via the judicial system is a delusion—for his legal strategy has always doubled as a radicalization strategy.

6/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1337568890000445441
Fundamentally, Trump is playing to delay, to destroy, and to sow doubt—and to further radicalize his supporters and the GOP—through malignant propaganda that his incessant legal assaults help to generate.

7/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1326260543368425472
With clear-cut legal victories registered against Trump, the Department of Justice appearing to stand firm, and the Electoral College slated to move forward smoothly after an onslaught of interference at the state level, we might say that democracy has been hanging on—barely.

8/
But tyranny and terrorism have gained momentum in the mind of the populace.

In terms of the coup’s goalposts, Trump has scored key points, described as follows.

9/
First and foremost, he has successfully used the last several weeks to further brainwash his followers, hardening their loyalty while simultaneously creating an even wider chasm between the country’s two versions of reality.

10/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1326260557226397698
With no earth-shaking defections and the GOP largely remaining in step behind Trump, he has also cemented his control of the party, as if he hadn’t already.

For any defections, he has shown his willingness to cannibalize the GOP itself with his base.

11/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1326260558602137601
All the while, the resistance has been dampened, lulling itself into a false sense of security from the legal victories notched against Trump.

12/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1308494040023916557
And, defying what we have long known about Trump’s intentions to hold on to power—including what he has explicitly told us—many continue to dismiss the coup as a bluff or a financial scheme or a temper tantrum.

13/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1326260559969480716
Clearly, it is past time to take Trump's words seriously.

For the sake of your survival, BELIEVE HIM.

14/
Now, what must we expect next?

As Trump has not achieved decisive victory in Round 2, the coup enters Round 3, in which he is almost certain to resort to more and more extreme measures to retain his grip on power.

15/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1315045902789165056
While it is never possible to forecast specifics with complete certainty, there are several likely scenarios for Round 3.

First, expect to see Trump more directly target his political opponents, using either the levers of the state or the radicalism of his base.

16/
Current rightwing discourse confirms the likelihood of such a move—something that Trump has been threatening for many months.

Those at risk include members of the press as well.

17/
Second, the disinformation campaign may escalate with even more concerted, false accusations of rigging by foreign powers, including claims of collusion with Trump’s opponents.

Our country will then face a heightened risk of military conflict with the implicated states.

18/
Third, we can expect increasing calls for Trump’s supporters to “take matters into their own hands,” as the “patriots” of last resort.

Here, the so-called “Trump Army” and the Proud Boys come into play.

19/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1286767500181540864
Especially as Trump sours even further on key officials, we should expect more domestic terrorism like the recent plot to kidnap the governor of Michigan.

20/
Later, perhaps in Round 4 of the coup, we may well see the invocation of the Insurrection Act and/or the declaration of martial law—additional measures that Trump has been signaling for a long time and which Michael Flynn recently insinuated.

21/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1308122736833724418
All of the foregoing risks are exacerbated by the purging of top military leadership that took place—a major storyline that was lost in the midst of Trump’s disinformation campaign against the election.

22/
Regardless of the specifics, the deteriorating macroscopic trajectory of our nation is clear. Even if Trump’s coup fails, the more perilous prospect is that his very attempt at a coup will be the ultimate spark for civil conflict.

23/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1325885024315576320
Key point: as all of this unfolds, we must expect to be ambushed.

24/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1316148679921725440
But even in Round 3, people will continue to deny what is happening, their boundary of perceived normalcy shifting even as our country becomes so far divorced from any objective moral or democratic standards.

25/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1296519929777315841
It is hard not to feel that we are a colony of ants marching into a trap.

26/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1296519974778011648
Everyday that this goes on—everyday that the latest joke is turned into a hashtag—a fascist takeover continues, and a civil conflict brews.

Just like a pandemic, each day of inaction means that we lose more and more lives tomorrow—of our neighbors, our family, our friends.

27/
Yet people laugh.

But in finality, the question for all of us is simple: What side of history will I be on? Will I be on the side of freedom and justice? Or will I be on the side of oppression?

Silence has never stopped any atrocities in the course of history.

28/
There are no second chances in this work. While there is room to be wrong in forecasting, there is no room to be wrong in denialism.

The resistance movement must therefore step up its efforts to foil our country’s autocratic takeover.

29/END
For those who have asked the question of what we can do, please note that my recommendations have been well-documented.

First, my pinned tweet/thread centralizes all of the most important work I have done on this crisis.

PS1/
Second, please see this series of postscript tweets (from my previous thread on the first stages of the coup) that consolidates a list of fourteen key action points.

PS2/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1326643427249942528
The action items are somewhat tailored to the point in time at which that thread was written, but they can all be adapted and applied today.

PS3/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1326643427249942528
Note, as those recommendations state, that as we progress to later stages of social conflict, the situation becomes more intractable. This is why early action is critical.

PS4/END
You can follow @1JoshGreenberg.
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