"When you study mathematics, statistics is far more important than calculus, so you must study it well. This is because virtually all problems in the real world are statistical problems" - Li Lu ( https://www.longriverinv.com/blog/qampa-with-li-lu)

Contrast this with Peter Thiel:

Thiel shows a shift from determinate optimism to indeterminate optimism/pessimism, a shift from calculus to statistics.

Buffett's insurance approach is an example of indeterminate optimism.
Thiel points out that the very best companies had clear visions of the future: Apple.

Li Lu is long FB, GOOG, (+BAC, MU) and Thiel is on FB's board.

FB+GOOG profit from "world as statistics", both are optimistic companies.

FB could be seen as determinate + optimistic. Connecting humans -> good.

Google? "do good" / "don't be evil" looks more indeterminate to me?

Just look at how Li Lu sees the world (understanding, accumulating knowledge, being roughly right), and go contrast that with Peter Thiel's thinking, which is 10x more focused on actually changing the world through CREATION.

Li Lu uses a language of value extraction... He's also currently long $MU. It's a great thesis (and I couldn't resist clipping some $ myself), but it's why value is so sketchy.

The MU thesis boils down to more value CAPTURE.

Contrast this with Thiel: CMPS, PLTR, TSLA, ABCL, FB.

I love Li Lu & I read everything I can get my hands on, but if I had to choose a camp (which is NOT what one should do, because it's about the CONTRAST), I love Peter Thiel wayyy more.

There's a clear tension between insurance + value types that talk about the real world ...

and Peter Thiel, who's focused on creation, abolishing aging & death, abolishing mental health issues like depression. Doesn't need to talk about "real" world/life.

Would be surprised if Thiel had $BAC in his portfolio, too, you know?

I'm writing all this also a reminder to not get addicted to making money off from $MU, $BAC (no pos) or even $GOOG? long-term.

Because I think $CMPS, $PLTR, $ABCL, $TSLA or other Thiel companies have the kind of determinate optimism that fit my better parts of my character, too.

I think the $BAC, $WFC camp got what they deserved.

Just watch this talk from Thiel from 2013(!), focused on SpaceX, Square, Tesla... Very smart.

Difference here might be 10 IQ points, and it's ONE HIGHER GEAR from extreme "understanding" (science) to "creating" (engineering).

Need to reflect here, bc if I'm honest with myself, I know I'm stupidly close to characters like Buffett/Graham. (A-Z approach, reading, thinking, literature, writing, philosophy).

I wonder if I'm happy like that decades out, or if I have to become more like Bezos/Gates/Musk?