What actually tangibly matters tonight is whether talks continue...

Foreign Sec on Marr seemed to express pathway to them continuing. Irish PM too.

No doubt we’ll get further ratcheting up of “prepare for no deal” message tho diff to go further than “very very likely”.

Impasse 1/2:

UK side having accepted principle of mechanism for tariff penalties if either side diverges actively.. dont want that to stretch to not keeping up with other side’s tightening of regulation, ie penalised for inaction rather than action...

2/2
UK perceives EU would prioritise its trade surplus with UK when push comes to shove.

EU: prioritises protect single market above its trade surplus with UK. And calculates UK would WPCTS step back from instant widespread tariffs as price to avoid possible limited future ones

Are there other solutions to this problem?

Ability to reset/review tariff rates every 2 or 3 years? Maybe just the same thing, but might help market the idea better, which seems important eg NI 2019 deal

Also still issue of how &who judges if a divergence is “trade distorting”.

To no great surprise... it turns out today not so final, acc to what is being briefed here and in Brussels... https://twitter.com/stefanleifert/status/1338086505248645121?s=21

Confirmed by Von Der Leyen in statement after PM call - negotiations continue in Brussels...

No further deadline set either, which is important...