Long thread on Trump and the 2020 election.

1) Trump got 11 million more votes than in 2016, but total turnout increased by 16%. Let's look at the relevant metrics. Trump's vote share % across the states was virtually identical to that of 2016. What changed was Biden did a few

2) points better than Hillary in nearly all of them, probably due to getting the vast majority of 2016 third party voters (especially Bernie bros coming home). Out of the states that Trump won twice, he improved his win margin in just 4: Florida, Mississippi, Arkansas, Utah.

3) Trump's improvement with blacks and Latinos did not help him in the electoral college. 45% of Latinos live in just two states: CA and TX. The only swing states where they can make a meaningful difference are FL and NV. In AZ Trump lost due to 9% of Republicans voting Biden.

4) Trump lost significant ground in upscale suburbs compared to 2016. Look at Collin/Denton/Williamson counties in TX as examples. Or traditional GOP stronghold Delaware County OH north of Columbus, which has not gone Dem since 1916 and Trump won it by just 7% after winning it by

5) 16% in 2016. Prior Republicans have won Delaware County by 20+ points. Trump's loss margin in Chester County PA was the worst by a Republican in history. Even GOP stronghold WOW counties outside Milwaukee moved to the left, a shocking development.

6) Trump's problem was the following. His policies were great, and Americans were happy with the economy before COVID. Most of them didn't even blame Trump for COVID or the lockdowns. But his rhetoric, optics, communication, and overall presentation, were so crude and elementary

7) that it repulsed suburban moderates who otherwise would have gladly voted for him. Yes, it's stupid because what matters is policies, but politics is an optics game, and for someone who allegedly is a "5-D chess player," he couldn't figure out that he had to switch things up.

8) Trump's 2016 pugilism was effective because it embodied his populist crusade against the corrupt Hillary, but once he became POTUS he should have shifted gears. The worst part is that while his rhetoric remained unchanged, he appointed swamp creatures to important positions

9) and deviated from his populist 2016 agenda. That was the worst of both worlds: you either go full MAGA in policy, personnel, and rhetoric, or go mainstream entirely. No in between.

10) Once COVID hit, Trump's lack of vision and strategic savvy finally caught up to him. He had planned on running a campaign that promised to continue the economic prosperity. COVID took away that huge advantage, and he was unable to figure out how to reframe the narrative.

11) Trump should have used COVID to make the election a referendum on China/immigration/economic nationalism, in the way that GOP used 9/11 to nationalize the election. Trump failed to do so and instead delegated the COVID response to Fauci and Birx, thus neutering himself as a

12) leader and making COVID purely a public health issue rather than a national security/economic/cultural one. Furthermore, Trump's tough talk on riots and law & order on Twitter were laughable as he refused to send in federal troops to crush the riots.

13) This took away Trump's law & order critique of Biden, as voters asked, "wait, you are President and refused to use your powers to crush the riots, so why should we reward you for it?" Trump did get better in the last month of the campaign but too little too late.

14) Perhaps this strategic misfire was due to Trump listening to moron Jared Kushner and buffoon Brad Parscale. Either way, he's the President and should have exercised much better judgment. A President with more intellect and strategic acumen would not have made those errors.

15) So what is the takeaway for GOP after Trump? The MAGA agenda is great and should be embraced with gusto. There is no going back to the impotent corporate Republicanism of Bush-McCain-Romney. But the messenger matters. A LOT.

16) Finding a nominee who combines MAGA policies with intelligence, savvy, great communication skills, will go a long ways and help us win the White House in 2024. As I said so many times before, I predicted Trump would be a one-term President, a transitional figure, due to his

17) tragic flaws and limitations. He is not a transformational figure like Reagan. We shall see who that person is.

Perhaps DeSantis? Tucker?