While building any asset allocation framework, it is important to understand that these are not precise timing tools and can only reduce 'controllable' risks.
As the models can’t precisely time the market movements, we may either move out of a bull run a lot earlier missing a part of the final rally, or enter back a lot earlier in a bear market taking a lot of the final decline.
In reality, we have to choose between two regrets –
1. Regret of missing out on a rally
vs
2. Regret of not getting out early before a crash
1. Regret of missing out on a rally
vs
2. Regret of not getting out early before a crash
Which reget to minimize is a personal choice and based on this, our asset allocation model’s interpretation and action points should be defined
How does this thought process influence my asset allocation framework? https://eightytwentyinvestor.com/2020/05/17/mulling-on-my-past-decisions/